***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 11.1 15.5 18.2 140.6 76.8 67.7 2.7 3.0 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 13.3 12.3 15.4 134.3 71.7 64.6 1.5 4.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 12.9 12.9 17.0 130.8 74.0 66.8 2.9 5.0 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 17.3 17.7 18.5 123.5 69.4 62.8 5.8 10.5 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 11.6 13.2 19.2 129.8 72.3 64.3 2.4 5.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.6 18.8 20.1 129.2 70.4 60.9 4.9 7.8 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.6 12.9 15.9 141.2 72.3 66.6 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 25.7 29.0 20.6 133.3 72.3 64.9 5.7 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 10.1 11.1 18.5 123.0 70.5 62.7 1.3 4.6 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 20.0 15.2 20.7 131.5 72.4 65.0 2.4 8.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.8 13.1 19.6 128.1 70.4 62.8 2.3 4.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.8 14.7 18.6 126.8 68.6 61.6 2.6 8.6 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.5 20.9 21.5 134.8 72.6 62.6 4.7 11.3 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 23.9 21.5 20.0 122.5 71.4 62.6 5.5 12.6 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 18.6 19.8 17.1 123.7 68.7 62.4 2.2 5.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.7 16.9 19.6 128.5 69.2 62.2 2.4 7.6 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 11.4 14.3 15.7 147.0 75.6 67.7 1.8 4.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.8 20.9 126.0 72.9 64.3 2.0 8.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 13.4 12.4 15.4 129.0 70.5 63.9 1.7 7.5 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 17.5 20.8 28.0 152.7 78.5 72.0 5.5 9.8 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 13.5 12.2 17.6 124.2 72.3 64.7 2.0 4.7 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 14.6 17.4 15.4 138.6 73.5 65.0 2.1 8.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 14.2 13.8 16.3 127.2 71.1 64.7 3.6 10.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 16.5 21.2 18.5 119.1 72.7 63.4 3.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 19.4 24.6 22.0 150.2 78.8 70.7 3.3 6.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.6 17.0 21.3 142.3 76.1 65.0 3.1 5.4 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 17.0 24.2 20.3 149.4 78.7 69.9 2.5 4.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.0 14.0 17.8 123.6 68.6 62.4 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 19.3 20.6 23.4 133.0 73.9 66.6 6.0 10.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.6 10.6 15.8 133.2 71.0 64.9 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------