***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 5.7 7.8 15.0 120.9 67.1 62.9 1.0 3.8 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.6 9.7 11.1 109.4 65.7 56.2 0.7 2.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 11.6 11.7 15.3 125.4 71.1 64.1 2.8 4.1 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.3 13.6 22.9 147.2 74.8 71.3 4.7 6.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.0 18.7 120.0 68.6 64.2 4.6 7.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 12.8 15.3 24.2 149.4 77.1 73.1 2.7 6.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.9 8.2 10.7 105.6 64.3 55.8 1.2 4.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 20.7 20.4 21.8 125.2 68.9 64.4 6.6 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 12.4 14.7 17.4 118.6 69.1 63.6 2.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 8.5 14.2 19.4 109.5 63.7 59.7 3.5 6.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 17.5 21.6 20.0 128.8 71.3 66.2 2.7 7.2 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 17.2 18.6 21.4 140.9 74.7 69.8 2.5 5.1 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 17.7 20.4 23.0 138.0 75.3 70.6 3.7 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.9 14.1 17.0 103.6 62.7 56.2 3.6 9.0 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 14.2 23.7 24.2 193.5 86.3 79.7 2.0 4.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 14.1 16.0 21.4 137.7 73.5 69.4 2.7 5.6 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.7 9.1 92.4 57.5 50.5 2.4 7.6 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 7.6 13.1 19.4 105.3 62.0 57.1 3.6 6.4 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.3 12.0 111.8 65.4 57.0 1.0 5.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 8.4 12.3 25.2 124.6 68.8 63.3 4.1 6.3 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 12.3 14.2 17.2 125.7 70.2 65.3 3.8 6.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.4 9.6 90.7 55.3 49.3 3.2 6.9 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.8 9.5 13.3 113.2 65.6 58.1 2.4 3.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.6 13.4 17.3 111.0 65.6 58.9 5.2 9.9 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 6.0 9.9 18.3 121.0 66.1 63.9 2.5 4.7 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 10.1 12.1 24.2 155.5 78.1 74.8 2.2 4.9 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 6.4 8.2 15.8 117.7 66.7 62.4 1.7 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.4 20.3 23.1 163.1 79.3 74.2 0.9 4.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 10.6 17.1 20.7 110.0 63.3 58.4 5.0 8.7 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.1 9.4 12.3 115.8 68.2 59.0 1.7 3.3 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------