***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 13.9 13.7 12.1 -1.9 17.1 25.3 15.1 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 14.1 13.6 11.9 -2.0 15.2 24.0 14.8 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 14.3 14.2 12.4 -1.9 18.4 26.4 15.3 16.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 6.8 6.3 9.6 -2.0 17.5 26.4 7.2 8.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 15.0 14.7 10.8 -1.7 22.0 29.5 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.4 9.4 -1.0 35.2 38.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 13.8 13.2 11.9 -2.0 15.3 23.9 14.7 15.7 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 2.7 9.3 -1.5 27.8 33.2 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 14.7 14.2 11.4 -1.7 21.7 29.3 15.1 16.1 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 15.0 14.6 10.1 -1.6 25.1 31.5 15.4 16.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 15.0 14.5 10.9 -1.7 23.1 30.3 15.5 16.3 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.1 13.7 10.2 -1.5 25.5 32.2 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 15.0 15.1 10.2 -1.4 26.5 33.2 15.4 16.4 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 14.4 14.0 11.2 -1.9 17.8 27.5 15.6 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 14.4 13.7 10.8 -2.1 14.6 24.0 15.0 16.0 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 15.3 14.9 10.4 -1.6 24.3 31.5 15.6 16.8 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 13.3 12.8 11.7 -2.0 15.0 23.7 14.1 14.7 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 14.4 14.1 9.6 -1.6 27.3 32.0 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 14.1 13.4 12.1 -1.9 15.8 24.9 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.2 9.6 7.3 -1.4 32.8 35.1 9.6 10.7 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 14.7 14.4 12.2 -1.8 20.7 28.3 15.3 16.5 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 14.4 13.8 11.8 -2.0 15.5 24.5 14.8 15.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 14.4 13.8 12.3 -1.9 16.2 26.3 15.5 16.1 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 14.5 14.5 11.3 -1.8 22.0 29.1 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 14.4 13.9 10.8 -1.9 19.4 26.4 15.3 16.3 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 14.3 14.8 9.7 -1.0 35.4 38.0 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 14.5 14.1 11.5 -1.8 18.7 26.0 15.0 16.2 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 14.7 14.2 10.1 -1.9 18.3 26.9 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 9.1 9.0 8.9 -1.6 28.3 32.6 9.3 10.8 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 13.9 13.4 12.0 -2.0 16.3 24.3 14.9 15.8 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------