***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.5 16.4 15.6 -0.1 49.4 49.7 14.4 16.6 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.9 15.3 -0.2 48.4 48.4 14.5 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 14.6 16.3 15.9 -0.1 49.7 49.7 14.9 16.3 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.6 9.3 13.6 0.0 48.6 50.2 8.0 9.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.9 14.3 0.0 50.3 50.5 15.6 16.9 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 14.4 17.5 12.6 0.5 56.6 54.7 14.7 16.3 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.8 15.3 -0.2 46.5 48.6 14.6 16.3 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.4 12.9 0.2 53.0 51.9 3.2 5.0 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.3 14.7 0.0 51.3 50.6 14.9 16.2 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.4 13.6 0.1 52.1 51.3 15.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.9 14.1 0.1 51.7 51.1 15.5 16.9 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.0 13.7 0.2 53.3 52.0 14.7 16.8 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.8 13.1 0.3 54.6 53.3 16.0 17.4 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.4 14.6 0.0 50.7 50.6 14.5 15.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.7 14.3 0.0 50.2 50.4 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.0 18.0 13.7 0.2 54.0 52.1 15.8 17.4 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 13.8 15.2 15.1 -0.3 47.4 48.0 13.9 15.3 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.0 13.3 0.1 53.0 51.8 14.3 15.8 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.9 15.6 -0.1 49.1 49.0 14.3 15.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.7 10.6 0.2 54.0 52.3 10.2 11.6 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.7 15.4 0.0 50.8 50.4 14.7 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.9 15.3 -0.2 48.4 48.6 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.1 15.7 15.8 0.0 49.7 50.1 14.9 15.8 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.4 15.8 14.6 0.0 51.4 50.8 14.4 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 14.9 16.3 14.2 0.0 49.7 50.5 15.1 16.4 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.7 12.9 0.5 57.5 54.6 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.7 16.4 14.9 -0.1 49.3 50.3 15.0 16.5 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.8 13.8 0.1 50.1 50.6 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.9 12.4 0.2 53.3 52.3 9.1 10.7 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.1 15.4 -0.2 48.2 48.9 14.3 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------