***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.4 13.5 -0.2 46.7 47.8 13.1 15.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.9 15.6 13.3 -0.4 45.1 45.4 14.4 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.7 13.9 0.0 48.6 48.9 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.2 10.6 -0.3 45.6 47.5 5.5 7.5 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.3 12.3 0.2 51.5 51.1 13.9 16.2 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.3 14.1 10.1 0.1 47.8 50.4 13.0 14.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.8 13.2 -0.4 45.1 44.7 14.4 14.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.4 10.2 -0.1 47.2 48.7 2.6 3.4 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.9 13.1 0.2 50.8 51.2 13.5 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.9 11.5 0.1 50.1 50.6 14.2 15.9 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.0 12.4 0.2 49.8 51.1 13.7 16.0 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.6 11.2 -0.1 46.4 49.1 13.5 15.0 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 13.8 15.8 11.5 0.0 48.7 50.0 14.7 15.9 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.8 15.6 12.8 -0.2 46.0 47.3 14.3 16.2 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.2 14.6 12.0 -0.5 42.3 45.3 13.2 15.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.4 16.1 11.7 0.1 48.6 50.0 14.3 16.3 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.0 14.1 12.8 -0.6 40.6 43.1 13.7 15.0 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.4 10.8 -0.1 47.9 48.9 13.3 15.6 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.5 13.5 -0.3 46.2 46.6 13.9 15.8 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.1 7.8 -0.5 44.7 45.7 8.6 10.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.1 13.8 0.1 50.6 50.6 14.0 16.1 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 13.8 15.1 13.1 -0.5 40.8 43.7 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.4 16.1 13.8 -0.1 47.3 48.1 14.4 16.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.2 12.8 -0.1 48.7 48.7 14.2 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.4 12.2 -0.2 46.4 48.1 14.0 15.6 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.4 15.6 10.1 0.0 48.5 49.8 14.1 15.8 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.6 12.9 -0.2 46.5 47.1 14.3 16.1 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.1 14.7 11.3 -0.3 44.5 47.5 12.8 15.4 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.1 9.8 -0.3 46.1 47.3 8.2 10.5 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.5 13.4 -0.3 46.8 46.5 14.2 15.7 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------