***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 3.1 3.0 3.1 -1.4 22.3 28.4 4.3 4.7 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 3.1 2.4 2.7 -1.7 14.7 22.4 4.2 4.7 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 5.4 5.0 3.1 -1.5 18.2 24.7 6.4 6.7 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -0.4 -0.8 0.5 -1.5 20.5 25.8 0.0 1.1 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.5 2.3 1.1 -1.3 23.4 29.1 2.9 3.7 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.4 -0.8 -0.7 37.8 40.7 2.2 2.8 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 3.3 2.7 2.7 -1.7 16.1 23.5 4.4 4.7 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -3.4 -1.2 -1.0 29.7 34.2 -3.3 -2.6 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.4 2.9 1.2 -1.3 17.6 27.2 3.9 4.6 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.6 3.2 -0.4 -1.3 23.3 30.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.3 2.9 0.5 -1.2 22.8 29.7 3.8 4.5 4.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.2 -0.2 -1.0 28.4 34.6 2.4 3.0 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.2 3.3 -0.2 -0.8 32.2 38.9 3.3 3.9 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 4.0 3.6 0.8 -1.7 15.9 23.8 4.7 5.0 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.8 3.4 1.7 -1.4 19.4 25.8 4.1 4.6 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.0 4.2 0.1 -1.0 27.4 33.9 4.3 4.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 3.5 2.8 2.4 -1.8 12.2 21.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.6 1.6 -1.1 -1.3 23.4 30.9 2.0 2.3 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 3.2 2.4 2.7 -1.7 14.3 22.1 4.1 4.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 -2.6 -0.8 36.2 39.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.3 2.8 2.5 -1.4 19.6 27.5 4.1 4.5 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 3.0 2.1 2.3 -1.9 11.2 19.7 3.6 4.1 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.8 1.8 2.5 -1.6 14.6 22.3 3.8 4.1 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.4 3.0 0.8 -1.5 18.1 25.9 4.0 4.4 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.3 3.1 2.1 -1.3 23.1 30.1 4.0 4.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.5 -0.3 -0.5 42.2 44.0 3.3 3.6 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.6 3.7 2.7 -1.3 23.9 30.6 4.5 5.0 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.2 1.9 0.8 -1.4 21.3 27.1 2.4 3.0 3.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.6 0.4 -1.7 -1.1 29.5 34.2 0.8 1.9 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 3.7 3.1 2.9 -1.6 16.5 23.6 4.5 5.1 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------