***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.2 6.1 0.0 50.1 51.3 4.9 6.2 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.7 5.7 -0.2 46.6 49.0 4.6 5.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.8 6.0 0.0 49.1 50.8 6.7 7.9 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.1 3.6 0.2 54.5 54.2 0.1 1.6 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.1 3.8 0.2 54.0 53.6 4.0 4.9 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.7 1.8 0.5 53.4 56.5 3.0 4.5 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.0 5.8 -0.1 46.6 49.3 4.7 6.2 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.2 -1.5 1.5 0.2 50.2 52.8 -2.1 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.5 4.0 0.2 51.5 53.1 4.7 5.4 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.9 2.4 0.1 50.5 52.5 4.7 5.8 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.4 3.0 0.2 51.5 53.0 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.3 2.3 0.2 51.1 53.7 3.3 4.3 4.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.5 2.0 0.3 53.2 54.7 3.9 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.9 3.8 0.0 50.7 51.1 5.3 5.9 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.3 4.6 0.3 55.7 54.7 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.4 2.6 0.3 52.9 54.4 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.8 5.6 -0.2 45.7 48.8 4.6 5.9 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.8 3.5 1.7 0.2 51.1 53.5 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.6 5.7 -0.1 47.4 49.1 4.4 5.8 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.2 0.9 -0.4 0.4 51.8 54.8 0.1 0.8 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.9 5.3 0.1 52.4 52.4 4.5 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.2 5.3 -0.2 45.6 48.0 4.3 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.1 5.5 -0.1 49.6 49.9 4.3 5.2 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.2 3.6 0.1 51.4 52.3 4.6 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.0 4.7 0.1 51.5 52.3 4.8 6.0 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.1 1.8 0.4 54.6 56.3 4.1 4.8 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.6 5.5 0.0 50.2 51.8 4.1 6.6 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.8 3.8 0.3 55.4 54.8 3.3 4.6 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.7 1.1 0.3 51.8 54.3 1.9 2.7 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.7 6.1 5.9 -0.1 47.7 49.5 4.9 6.3 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------