***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.9 5.2 0.2 50.1 52.2 4.7 5.9 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.4 4.8 0.0 46.7 50.5 4.9 5.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.9 5.2 0.1 49.6 51.7 6.6 8.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.9 2.6 0.2 50.0 51.8 1.3 1.9 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.2 2.7 0.2 50.4 53.2 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 46.6 52.2 1.9 3.1 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.8 4.9 0.0 48.8 50.7 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -1.9 0.4 0.0 44.7 51.4 -2.2 -1.9 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.0 3.0 0.2 47.5 53.2 4.3 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.1 1.3 0.0 45.7 51.8 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.2 1.9 0.1 50.0 52.8 3.7 5.2 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.2 3.5 1.2 0.1 47.7 52.6 2.5 3.8 4.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.6 0.9 0.1 48.5 52.9 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.4 2.8 0.0 44.7 50.9 4.6 5.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.1 3.5 0.1 51.7 51.1 4.7 6.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.8 1.5 0.2 50.7 53.0 4.4 5.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.5 4.7 -0.1 45.3 50.3 4.9 6.0 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 46.3 51.5 1.8 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.3 4.8 0.0 46.5 50.4 4.5 5.6 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 0.0 46.8 51.6 -0.2 0.4 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.6 4.4 0.2 50.0 52.7 4.2 5.6 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.8 4.7 4.4 -0.2 43.8 49.1 4.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.9 4.6 0.0 47.0 50.7 4.1 5.2 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.0 5.2 2.6 0.1 46.0 51.6 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.0 3.8 0.2 48.6 51.9 4.3 5.1 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.4 0.6 0.0 48.6 51.9 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.5 4.6 0.2 50.1 52.3 5.1 6.5 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.6 2.7 0.2 51.7 51.9 2.2 3.6 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.5 -0.1 0.0 45.5 51.7 2.1 2.6 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.7 5.0 0.0 48.7 51.1 5.2 5.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------