***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 4.9 4.5 4.3 0.0 49.2 50.6 3.1 4.5 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.4 3.9 3.8 -0.4 44.3 45.3 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.1 6.7 4.3 -0.1 47.7 48.9 5.5 6.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.1 -0.7 1.1 -0.6 39.2 42.3 -1.0 0.7 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.4 2.2 0.0 45.3 49.8 1.2 3.8 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.3 -0.5 0.0 47.8 50.4 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.3 3.9 -0.3 45.6 47.0 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -3.2 -0.6 -0.1 42.4 47.1 -3.9 -2.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 4.9 4.0 2.2 -0.2 43.0 47.8 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.1 0.4 -0.2 43.0 46.9 3.0 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.7 1.4 -0.1 44.4 49.0 2.0 4.5 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 3.5 3.2 0.6 0.1 47.1 50.6 0.8 3.3 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.8 0.6 0.2 50.9 53.6 1.9 3.8 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 4.7 4.0 1.8 -0.3 43.1 45.7 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.6 2.1 -0.8 37.2 40.7 3.2 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.5 4.9 1.0 0.0 47.2 51.0 3.4 5.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.2 3.6 -0.5 41.7 43.9 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.0 -0.2 -0.1 45.5 47.9 0.1 2.2 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 4.4 3.8 3.8 -0.4 44.1 45.1 3.4 4.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.3 0.0 -1.9 0.2 50.3 51.1 -1.6 0.0 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 4.6 4.1 3.6 -0.1 47.8 50.0 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.6 3.5 -0.5 40.4 43.6 2.8 3.8 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.0 3.4 3.5 -0.4 42.1 44.7 3.0 3.8 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 4.2 3.7 1.9 -0.2 45.3 47.5 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 5.0 4.8 3.3 0.0 49.6 50.2 3.4 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 3.6 3.3 0.2 0.3 51.3 53.6 2.1 3.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 5.7 5.7 4.0 0.1 51.8 52.2 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.2 1.4 -0.6 40.1 43.6 1.6 3.0 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.0 -1.0 0.0 46.9 49.2 0.1 1.1 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.3 4.5 4.0 -0.3 45.6 46.8 3.6 5.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------