***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 -0.7 -3.4 -3.0 -5.8 0.1 4.4 1.4 2.3 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 -0.5 -4.4 -3.6 -6.2 0.0 2.2 1.1 2.0 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 0.8 -1.2 -3.0 -6.0 0.0 2.8 3.1 3.8 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 -6.1 -7.5 -5.4 -5.7 1.3 4.4 -3.2 -2.5 -0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 -1.1 -4.4 -4.2 -5.5 3.0 6.4 0.2 1.2 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 -1.5 -1.8 -5.1 -3.3 16.4 20.1 -0.8 0.9 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 -0.7 -4.7 -3.7 -6.2 0.0 2.3 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 -8.2 -9.3 -6.0 -4.1 12.4 15.4 -7.5 -5.3 -3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 -1.1 -2.4 -4.3 -5.4 0.1 4.8 1.3 2.4 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 -0.4 -1.2 -5.7 -5.0 6.1 9.5 1.2 1.9 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 -0.6 -2.0 -4.5 -5.1 3.6 7.8 0.9 1.9 3.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 -1.9 -3.0 -4.9 -4.3 9.5 13.8 -0.6 1.3 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 -0.3 -1.0 -4.3 -4.0 12.0 15.9 0.8 1.5 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 -0.2 -0.9 -5.3 -6.3 0.5 3.1 1.9 2.7 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 -0.2 -2.9 -3.4 -5.1 0.5 4.3 1.5 2.7 4.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 -0.2 -1.4 -4.5 -4.6 7.5 11.5 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 -0.3 -2.7 -4.2 -6.6 0.0 1.6 1.0 2.2 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 -1.3 -3.2 -6.3 -5.1 5.2 8.9 -0.6 0.7 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -0.9 -4.1 -3.6 -6.1 0.0 2.2 1.2 2.1 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 -5.2 -5.5 -6.8 -3.7 16.9 18.6 -3.7 -2.6 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 -1.1 -3.2 -3.3 -5.8 0.0 4.0 1.6 2.6 3.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 -0.8 -3.2 -4.0 -6.6 0.0 1.5 0.5 1.7 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -0.7 -3.9 -3.6 -6.0 0.0 2.2 0.9 1.7 3.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 -0.8 -1.9 -4.8 -5.8 1.3 4.6 1.2 1.8 3.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 -0.8 -3.8 -3.6 -5.6 1.9 6.7 1.0 2.3 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 -0.3 -0.5 -3.8 -2.7 20.9 23.9 0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 -0.8 -4.9 -3.3 -5.6 1.0 6.3 1.2 2.5 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 -1.9 -4.4 -4.6 -5.5 2.1 5.5 -0.5 1.6 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 -4.5 -4.9 -7.0 -4.6 10.5 13.5 -2.5 -0.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 -0.4 -4.8 -3.3 -6.0 0.0 2.7 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------