***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.8 13.9 100.6 58.9 50.7 5.8 10.6 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.1 13.9 112.1 61.8 53.1 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.3 14.3 13.7 98.7 60.0 50.0 6.6 11.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.9 23.2 16.6 103.5 61.1 52.1 13.7 19.6 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.8 14.9 15.6 99.4 59.5 51.5 9.6 11.7 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.8 16.9 18.9 113.6 64.6 57.5 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.4 12.9 13.2 107.9 62.3 51.5 3.0 5.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 22.4 23.2 17.8 109.0 61.1 54.4 16.3 20.6 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.2 15.6 15.7 97.2 58.5 50.9 7.8 11.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.6 18.3 105.6 61.3 53.4 10.2 13.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.9 15.1 102.1 60.1 52.3 10.4 14.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.2 15.5 15.2 105.2 59.8 53.7 9.4 12.1 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.3 19.6 16.8 104.6 59.4 54.2 11.6 15.2 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.0 23.0 18.6 100.0 57.7 51.1 11.8 20.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.8 16.1 108.2 60.9 52.1 5.9 13.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.2 15.8 103.0 59.7 53.3 10.0 15.4 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.9 13.8 111.7 62.5 52.7 4.9 9.6 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.4 19.8 107.9 61.8 54.7 10.4 14.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.9 15.1 14.1 109.8 61.7 52.7 7.0 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 14.7 20.6 107.1 58.6 54.3 6.7 11.0 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 8.1 15.1 14.7 98.6 58.8 50.7 7.7 12.5 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.9 14.5 108.0 61.0 52.3 4.4 10.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.4 16.1 14.4 103.8 60.4 51.4 10.5 12.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.4 15.9 17.6 102.1 59.9 52.2 10.3 15.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.8 15.7 100.6 58.0 51.1 9.1 13.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.7 15.6 101.5 58.1 53.3 8.8 14.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.9 14.4 98.7 57.3 50.1 7.0 11.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.4 18.8 16.5 106.1 61.2 52.9 7.0 13.1 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 23.3 20.2 108.2 60.9 54.7 14.3 18.5 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.5 13.5 104.8 60.3 51.3 3.2 9.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------