***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.9 9.9 80.3 51.1 42.5 1.2 3.8 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.2 9.6 87.9 56.7 46.9 1.0 5.3 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.4 10.4 83.6 55.1 44.8 1.4 5.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 12.4 15.0 107.6 63.7 50.5 4.6 8.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.2 13.1 97.6 56.7 48.7 1.9 5.7 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.5 16.4 112.5 63.4 52.5 2.5 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.2 5.3 9.6 88.9 56.7 46.2 0.7 2.6 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 13.0 15.6 113.4 64.1 52.5 4.5 9.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.5 4.9 13.0 92.4 55.5 47.2 1.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.4 15.3 103.9 60.8 50.4 2.6 4.9 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.9 13.4 107.3 61.5 51.1 1.5 3.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.8 14.0 114.2 64.6 53.0 1.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.0 15.5 115.1 64.8 53.6 2.7 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.4 8.2 15.0 92.8 58.4 50.7 3.8 6.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.1 7.3 15.1 113.5 65.4 50.5 1.4 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.5 15.0 114.3 64.7 53.5 2.4 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.3 9.6 90.7 59.2 49.0 1.2 4.1 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.7 16.8 106.4 62.5 52.0 2.1 4.3 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.7 9.9 86.4 56.7 47.1 1.5 3.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 9.2 18.8 113.5 64.6 51.6 3.2 4.7 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.0 11.4 86.6 54.8 45.8 0.6 4.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.5 10.3 89.5 57.1 49.4 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.8 6.5 10.7 85.9 57.6 47.5 1.6 4.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.3 8.0 14.4 94.8 58.1 49.7 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.6 12.1 86.6 54.0 44.8 2.7 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.7 14.5 115.6 64.0 54.0 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.5 4.0 10.5 80.3 49.4 42.5 1.4 4.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.3 15.7 114.9 65.8 52.0 0.7 5.9 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.9 17.5 109.1 64.1 52.2 5.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.1 3.6 9.7 85.7 55.4 45.3 0.2 2.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------