***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 1.1 2.4 7.3 57.3 37.9 35.2 2.0 3.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.4 6.6 55.3 41.8 35.6 1.7 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.5 7.6 59.2 40.7 35.9 2.6 4.8 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.3 9.0 8.8 62.8 44.5 38.6 6.6 9.5 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.6 8.7 63.7 40.8 37.4 2.4 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.2 7.8 10.6 74.0 45.9 41.8 6.5 8.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.0 6.3 53.0 40.5 34.6 0.7 5.7 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.2 11.7 10.8 74.6 47.1 40.9 6.8 14.5 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.2 2.9 8.9 64.0 40.3 37.9 1.5 4.6 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.5 10.2 69.6 44.5 39.8 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.2 9.1 64.9 40.8 37.3 3.1 4.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.7 6.8 9.7 72.3 44.3 39.9 2.3 8.6 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.1 7.1 9.8 66.0 40.3 37.4 5.6 11.5 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.3 10.0 59.8 41.1 36.5 4.8 11.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.6 8.0 60.0 44.7 38.6 1.9 6.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.7 9.4 67.0 41.5 38.7 2.0 6.7 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.9 6.4 53.2 40.8 35.3 2.2 5.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.7 10.9 69.9 43.4 40.5 3.4 8.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.1 6.9 56.3 41.0 35.7 1.7 6.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 7.2 13.0 74.1 45.7 41.0 5.5 9.7 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.9 8.0 59.4 39.1 36.2 2.8 5.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.1 7.0 54.4 41.0 35.2 3.4 7.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.8 5.5 7.3 56.1 39.8 34.9 3.0 10.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.5 4.1 9.6 63.8 40.7 38.5 3.6 8.4 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.8 8.5 58.8 39.0 35.8 3.6 6.6 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.7 9.7 66.7 41.1 37.0 2.1 5.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.8 7.9 57.5 37.8 35.2 2.4 4.8 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.1 8.6 63.4 45.4 39.7 0.9 5.3 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 10.1 11.8 71.9 44.0 41.3 8.3 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.1 3.6 6.8 57.1 41.8 35.9 1.5 4.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------