***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 1.2 1.4 6.1 50.1 36.1 32.6 1.0 3.1 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.4 1.0 6.1 56.2 38.5 35.3 0.7 3.3 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 1.8 3.0 5.9 47.8 33.9 30.6 2.8 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.4 5.5 9.6 65.1 44.7 37.0 4.3 6.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.5 5.3 7.6 52.7 36.1 32.0 4.4 7.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.0 3.8 9.3 63.4 41.1 35.9 2.2 6.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.8 1.8 6.3 57.7 39.6 36.4 1.2 3.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 6.0 7.4 10.8 63.2 39.2 34.8 6.9 11.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.3 2.8 6.9 49.1 33.7 30.0 2.7 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.6 4.2 10.3 61.6 38.3 33.8 3.6 9.7 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 4.1 4.0 8.8 59.4 39.3 32.8 3.2 10.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 2.3 4.5 8.5 57.0 37.1 32.5 2.9 5.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.9 5.8 9.0 58.0 37.0 32.6 4.8 7.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 4.5 5.6 9.7 59.8 37.9 34.7 5.2 9.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.6 10.9 93.1 58.2 47.6 2.6 5.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 2.0 2.9 7.6 52.0 34.6 30.6 2.7 5.6 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.0 6.0 56.0 40.6 36.3 2.4 6.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 2.4 4.4 10.6 60.6 35.9 33.3 4.2 6.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.2 1.4 6.0 53.3 37.1 33.6 0.6 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 2.7 4.1 12.0 61.9 40.1 35.8 3.4 5.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.2 3.7 6.3 47.5 33.5 30.4 3.5 6.3 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.5 6.5 57.6 40.6 36.4 1.7 6.6 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 1.5 2.5 6.1 49.7 36.6 31.8 2.3 3.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 3.5 4.6 8.3 53.6 33.3 31.0 4.5 9.0 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.1 2.0 6.9 49.3 34.3 31.3 1.8 5.3 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.4 3.0 7.8 51.9 35.9 32.9 2.6 5.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.0 1.1 6.4 49.9 34.9 32.2 0.8 5.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.2 9.8 73.2 48.8 39.5 0.9 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 5.0 6.6 11.3 63.2 39.0 35.2 4.4 11.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.5 1.4 6.0 54.8 38.1 34.4 1.4 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------