***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.1 14.7 1.1 70.5 65.0 14.9 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.7 15.0 1.4 75.0 69.5 14.8 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.6 14.9 0.9 67.4 62.1 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.9 11.7 0.6 60.7 58.1 7.2 8.2 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.5 12.5 0.3 53.0 53.8 15.4 16.5 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.5 10.6 0.6 59.2 57.0 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.0 16.4 15.0 1.5 75.9 70.3 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.8 10.6 0.1 51.2 50.9 2.7 3.7 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.3 13.2 0.3 53.1 53.5 14.9 16.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.0 11.5 0.0 49.7 50.2 14.8 16.0 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.5 12.5 0.3 53.6 53.5 15.2 16.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.5 11.8 0.4 56.2 54.6 13.9 15.3 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.7 11.8 0.5 59.3 56.6 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.0 13.0 0.1 54.4 52.1 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.4 13.5 1.0 69.4 63.6 14.9 15.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.3 12.1 0.5 59.1 56.7 15.4 16.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.3 14.7 1.4 74.8 69.8 14.0 14.3 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.5 11.0 0.0 51.4 50.6 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.2 15.0 1.3 72.8 67.3 14.8 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.6 8.5 0.1 52.1 51.6 9.1 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.4 14.0 0.4 57.0 55.6 15.1 16.2 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.1 14.4 1.0 68.8 64.2 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 16.6 16.3 14.9 1.0 68.3 63.6 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.1 12.9 0.2 54.6 52.6 15.2 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.3 13.1 0.7 63.8 60.2 15.0 15.9 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.7 11.3 1.0 68.6 62.8 14.3 15.5 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.6 14.0 1.0 69.0 63.9 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.4 12.4 0.7 62.4 59.1 15.3 16.2 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.6 10.2 0.0 50.9 50.7 9.0 10.5 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.4 15.0 1.4 74.7 68.5 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------