***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.2 15.8 0.0 53.4 49.9 14.3 16.1 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.6 16.2 16.1 0.5 58.2 53.8 14.6 15.6 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.6 16.1 -0.1 52.2 49.6 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.6 9.5 13.2 -0.5 47.4 46.5 8.3 9.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 15.3 17.0 13.7 -0.8 46.1 45.1 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.7 16.9 11.8 -0.6 49.1 46.1 14.3 17.1 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.4 16.1 0.5 58.3 54.0 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.8 12.2 -0.6 45.9 45.7 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 14.9 16.7 14.1 -0.7 46.5 45.4 15.2 16.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.7 16.7 13.0 -0.7 46.0 45.4 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.3 13.6 -0.7 47.4 45.6 15.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.3 16.2 13.3 -0.5 48.2 46.8 14.8 16.5 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 15.5 17.9 12.6 -0.5 48.7 47.0 15.6 18.0 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 14.5 15.3 14.1 -0.6 47.4 46.4 14.5 15.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.4 17.0 14.2 -0.2 50.0 49.5 16.1 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 15.7 17.8 13.2 -0.5 49.1 46.6 15.9 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.0 15.7 15.9 0.5 58.7 54.0 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.8 12.7 -0.6 46.2 46.0 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.3 16.1 16.1 0.3 56.9 52.8 14.8 15.5 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.5 11.7 9.9 -0.6 46.0 46.3 9.7 11.8 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.5 15.0 -0.6 48.5 46.2 15.3 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 14.5 15.7 15.6 0.2 54.7 52.0 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 14.4 16.1 16.0 0.1 55.1 51.1 14.8 15.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.5 14.1 -0.6 47.3 46.2 14.6 15.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.8 13.9 -0.4 49.1 47.2 15.4 16.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 14.5 16.5 12.7 0.0 51.9 50.4 14.9 16.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.8 15.0 -0.2 51.9 49.0 14.8 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 15.7 17.3 13.5 -0.4 48.7 47.4 16.2 17.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.4 11.8 -0.6 45.7 46.0 9.7 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 14.6 16.4 16.1 0.3 56.7 53.1 14.8 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------