***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 17.4 18.1 15.6 1.2 62.6 59.6 15.7 17.0 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 17.3 17.9 15.9 1.6 67.0 62.3 16.2 16.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.6 18.1 16.0 1.2 60.6 58.9 16.6 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 13.0 0.9 59.0 56.2 8.1 9.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.1 13.6 0.6 56.4 54.3 16.8 17.2 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.0 11.6 0.7 57.0 54.4 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.7 15.8 1.5 66.1 62.2 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.0 11.9 0.4 51.7 52.1 3.3 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.6 14.1 0.6 55.7 54.4 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.4 12.9 0.5 53.1 53.1 16.1 17.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.4 13.5 0.6 55.1 54.2 16.3 16.9 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.7 12.9 0.6 54.1 53.5 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.2 12.2 0.7 53.9 54.0 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.4 14.1 0.5 51.5 54.0 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.8 14.0 1.2 63.7 59.7 15.4 16.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.7 13.0 0.8 55.8 54.9 16.6 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.0 15.7 1.5 65.3 62.1 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 15.8 17.1 12.5 0.4 51.4 52.4 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.8 16.0 1.5 64.8 61.3 15.9 16.7 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.6 9.4 0.1 48.8 50.6 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.7 14.9 0.8 55.9 55.6 16.6 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.5 18.1 15.5 1.2 62.8 59.7 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.6 18.2 16.0 1.2 60.5 59.5 16.5 17.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.1 14.0 0.6 53.4 54.1 16.5 17.0 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.2 13.7 0.9 58.6 57.0 16.1 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.6 12.1 0.9 56.5 55.6 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.0 14.8 1.0 61.1 58.5 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.0 13.3 1.0 60.3 57.3 15.6 17.4 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.7 11.4 0.2 49.2 51.5 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 17.3 17.9 15.9 1.5 65.9 61.8 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------