***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 14.8 16.6 13.7 1.0 62.0 59.1 13.7 14.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.6 14.1 1.4 64.6 61.7 13.9 15.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.6 13.9 0.8 59.8 57.1 14.1 15.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.9 10.4 0.5 55.5 54.1 5.2 7.3 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.8 11.4 0.1 52.8 51.3 14.4 15.7 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.5 15.1 8.9 0.0 51.7 49.8 13.2 14.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.3 14.0 1.4 65.8 62.0 13.8 15.3 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.9 9.2 -0.1 48.9 48.6 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.7 12.2 0.2 53.1 51.7 13.9 15.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.5 10.3 -0.2 48.9 48.7 14.3 15.6 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.9 11.4 0.0 50.9 50.1 14.1 15.8 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.5 15.0 10.4 0.1 51.1 50.7 13.8 14.9 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.4 10.6 0.2 51.9 50.9 14.9 16.0 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.5 12.3 0.3 52.4 51.1 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.2 12.4 0.7 56.5 56.1 13.8 14.9 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.7 10.9 0.2 52.1 51.6 15.1 15.6 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 14.6 15.3 13.9 1.5 65.5 62.4 13.3 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.5 9.9 0.1 51.0 49.9 13.7 15.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.5 16.7 14.1 1.3 62.9 60.4 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 10.1 7.4 0.1 50.7 50.3 9.0 10.0 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.8 13.1 0.3 53.8 53.0 14.2 15.6 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.4 13.7 1.1 61.5 59.1 13.9 15.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.8 14.0 1.1 60.2 58.3 14.5 15.8 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.1 12.1 0.2 52.7 51.0 14.6 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.8 12.0 0.6 56.3 55.5 14.0 15.4 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.3 9.6 0.5 55.8 53.4 13.9 15.7 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.8 13.0 0.8 59.5 57.9 14.5 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 11.1 0.5 53.8 53.8 13.1 15.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 10.5 9.1 0.1 51.4 50.2 9.0 10.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 15.7 16.6 14.0 1.3 64.5 61.1 13.9 15.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------