***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 15.3 14.6 13.8 2.2 70.7 69.1 10.8 12.2 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.3 14.6 13.9 2.3 72.3 70.5 10.3 11.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 13.4 14.5 13.6 1.7 65.5 64.1 10.5 12.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 5.9 8.0 10.4 1.8 65.8 63.9 1.5 5.4 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 13.5 14.6 11.4 1.2 61.2 59.0 9.9 13.0 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 14.9 14.6 10.2 2.1 65.6 65.6 7.8 12.0 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.5 13.9 2.5 74.1 72.2 10.2 11.6 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 1.6 1.7 8.9 0.6 55.5 54.2 -1.4 0.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 13.0 14.4 12.3 1.0 59.9 57.9 9.8 12.5 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 13.1 12.8 9.8 0.3 52.9 52.4 9.1 12.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 13.3 14.5 11.7 1.1 60.4 57.7 9.4 12.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 13.2 14.1 10.5 1.2 60.1 58.5 8.3 12.5 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 13.5 15.2 11.8 1.7 64.0 61.4 9.0 12.6 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 13.2 12.6 11.6 0.3 53.7 52.7 11.0 12.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.3 13.5 2.4 70.7 69.4 10.5 13.7 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 14.2 15.6 11.5 1.6 63.8 61.4 9.7 13.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.3 13.3 13.4 2.3 73.5 70.9 9.6 10.7 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 12.8 12.1 9.1 0.3 54.2 52.3 9.1 12.0 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.2 13.8 2.1 70.0 68.0 10.5 11.8 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.2 7.3 0.7 57.0 55.7 4.0 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 13.3 14.3 13.2 1.2 62.5 60.1 10.4 12.9 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 13.7 13.9 13.0 1.5 67.7 64.2 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 48 52 100 14.7 14.3 13.6 1.7 66.1 64.3 10.9 12.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 13.1 12.9 11.6 0.5 56.3 54.2 10.8 12.5 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 14.9 14.8 12.5 1.9 68.0 66.4 10.1 12.6 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.3 16.5 10.8 2.5 71.1 68.7 8.5 11.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 15.5 14.7 13.3 2.2 71.8 69.7 10.5 12.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 15.6 15.3 11.6 1.9 66.0 64.3 9.9 13.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 8.4 7.7 8.5 0.4 55.0 53.4 4.1 7.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 14.6 14.6 14.0 2.4 71.3 70.2 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------