***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 5.3 5.2 5.0 0.7 65.7 63.8 4.2 4.6 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 4.9 4.8 4.9 0.8 69.4 65.6 4.0 4.6 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 7.1 7.2 5.1 0.7 68.5 65.3 6.2 6.6 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.1 1.1 2.3 0.6 64.5 62.3 -0.1 1.0 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 3.6 3.7 2.7 0.5 62.1 59.6 2.8 3.4 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 3.1 3.1 0.6 1.0 70.6 68.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.0 5.1 4.9 0.8 68.4 66.1 4.3 4.8 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -2.7 -2.3 0.3 0.5 62.5 60.6 -3.5 -2.9 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.7 2.9 0.6 64.3 61.9 3.8 4.3 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.4 4.7 1.2 0.5 63.4 60.5 4.1 4.3 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 4.3 4.5 2.2 0.6 65.3 63.0 3.7 4.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 3.0 3.2 1.3 0.6 64.1 62.6 2.4 2.8 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.1 1.1 0.5 62.4 60.6 3.2 3.7 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 5.2 5.1 2.8 0.6 64.0 62.5 4.6 4.9 5.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.3 3.8 0.9 71.9 68.9 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.1 1.6 0.6 64.8 62.7 4.2 4.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 5.1 5.2 4.7 0.8 68.6 65.5 4.0 4.6 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 2.7 2.5 0.7 0.6 65.2 62.5 1.7 2.4 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.8 70.5 66.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 0.1 -0.1 -1.3 0.6 65.5 62.4 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 4.8 4.8 4.2 0.6 65.0 61.8 3.9 4.4 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.4 4.7 0.8 68.2 65.7 3.5 4.1 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 4.6 4.4 4.7 0.8 72.0 67.5 3.7 4.1 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 4.6 4.5 2.7 0.7 66.6 63.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.8 3.8 0.6 64.0 60.8 3.8 4.3 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 4.1 3.9 0.8 0.8 67.0 64.9 3.0 3.5 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 5.4 5.4 4.5 0.6 64.1 62.0 4.4 4.7 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 3.3 3.6 2.7 0.7 67.6 64.5 2.3 2.7 3.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 2.1 2.0 0.0 0.8 67.6 64.3 0.6 1.5 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 5.3 5.4 5.0 0.8 70.5 66.2 4.3 5.0 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------