***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.9 6.4 0.1 52.2 50.7 4.7 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.7 6.1 0.1 51.5 50.8 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.8 6.4 0.2 53.9 52.5 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.1 1.6 3.7 0.1 51.3 50.5 0.3 1.6 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.8 3.8 0.0 50.1 49.3 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.0 1.9 0.4 51.9 53.8 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.0 6.1 0.1 50.5 50.7 5.1 6.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.9 -1.8 1.7 0.1 47.5 51.0 -2.5 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.1 4.1 0.0 49.9 50.1 4.4 5.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.2 2.5 0.1 48.3 50.7 4.4 5.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.5 3.2 0.1 51.4 50.9 4.1 5.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.0 2.5 0.1 49.4 51.5 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.8 2.0 0.0 47.8 51.1 4.2 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.8 3.9 -0.1 47.3 49.1 5.2 5.8 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.4 4.9 0.3 55.3 53.8 4.7 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.2 2.7 0.2 52.7 51.7 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.9 5.9 0.1 51.0 50.4 4.9 5.8 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.0 1.9 0.1 48.7 51.7 2.7 3.0 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.9 6.1 0.2 53.0 51.8 4.7 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.1 0.8 -0.3 0.0 45.9 51.4 0.1 1.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.5 5.5 0.1 52.2 50.5 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.3 5.7 0.1 51.7 51.2 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.5 5.9 0.2 53.9 52.9 4.2 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.1 3.8 0.1 49.7 51.5 4.5 5.1 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.1 4.9 0.0 51.9 49.6 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.9 1.8 0.2 51.7 52.7 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.1 5.7 0.0 51.1 49.6 4.1 6.0 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.4 4.0 0.2 53.1 52.0 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.9 2.1 1.2 0.1 48.1 52.0 1.3 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.2 6.3 0.2 51.6 51.5 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------