***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.9 5.5 0.5 54.5 55.9 4.4 5.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.6 5.2 0.5 54.5 56.5 4.8 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.9 5.4 0.4 53.4 55.5 6.7 7.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.1 1.5 2.4 0.1 50.1 51.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.6 2.6 0.0 48.5 50.0 2.9 4.7 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.2 0.4 0.2 49.5 51.3 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.0 5.3 0.5 54.1 56.2 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 0.2 -0.1 42.9 47.4 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.8 2.9 0.1 48.5 50.9 4.1 5.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.4 1.1 0.0 45.4 48.8 4.4 5.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.3 1.8 0.0 46.2 48.4 3.9 5.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.1 1.0 0.0 45.0 48.2 2.5 3.5 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.3 0.7 0.1 48.0 50.1 2.7 4.5 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.8 3.0 0.2 47.8 52.7 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.6 3.6 0.3 51.5 53.1 4.4 5.5 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.5 1.3 0.1 47.6 49.5 4.0 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.7 5.1 0.5 55.1 56.4 5.1 5.6 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.7 0.5 0.1 45.8 50.3 1.7 3.0 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.5 5.2 0.5 54.3 56.6 4.4 5.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -1.0 0.2 -1.6 0.0 45.4 49.5 -0.3 0.3 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.3 4.4 0.2 49.2 52.7 3.9 5.3 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.2 4.9 0.5 53.8 56.9 4.2 5.1 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.3 5.0 0.4 52.9 56.4 4.3 5.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.5 2.6 0.2 48.2 52.2 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.2 3.9 0.3 51.4 53.6 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 4.8 4.6 0.7 0.4 50.7 52.8 2.7 4.5 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.7 4.9 0.4 54.3 55.3 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.8 2.6 0.2 50.2 51.6 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.1 -0.1 0.1 45.7 50.8 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.1 5.4 0.5 54.7 56.4 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------