***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.9 3.7 0.2 55.0 52.0 2.5 4.2 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.2 3.7 0.4 55.1 53.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 6.9 7.0 4.0 0.3 56.9 54.3 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.1 52.2 52.6 -1.2 0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 4.1 4.1 1.5 0.1 51.9 51.2 1.1 3.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 2.7 2.9 -0.9 0.4 52.4 54.5 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.5 3.7 0.4 55.5 53.7 3.5 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -2.4 -0.9 0.3 53.9 53.6 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 4.7 4.5 1.8 0.2 53.2 52.6 2.9 4.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.8 4.5 0.0 0.2 52.8 52.6 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 4.4 4.2 1.1 0.3 54.9 53.9 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 2.9 2.7 0.2 0.2 53.4 53.3 0.8 2.6 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 3.8 3.5 -0.1 0.0 51.6 50.8 1.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.5 1.8 0.4 55.7 54.2 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.7 2.4 0.3 54.5 54.3 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.7 0.4 0.1 52.8 52.6 2.9 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.5 3.5 0.4 52.8 53.1 3.5 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.0 2.5 -0.4 0.5 57.9 56.4 0.1 1.7 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.4 3.7 0.4 57.0 54.1 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -0.3 -2.3 0.4 55.7 55.1 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 4.6 4.7 3.1 0.1 53.5 51.7 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.8 3.6 0.4 54.4 53.4 3.1 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.1 3.6 0.5 60.3 56.1 2.3 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.5 1.8 0.5 58.4 56.3 2.8 3.7 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.6 4.2 2.5 0.0 51.6 50.0 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.1 -0.7 0.1 50.4 51.2 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.5 3.2 0.1 53.1 50.4 2.9 5.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 2.8 3.0 1.3 0.2 52.2 52.8 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.8 -1.1 0.7 59.3 58.3 0.0 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.2 3.9 0.4 56.2 53.7 3.8 4.8 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------