***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 4.1 4.6 4.6 2.1 73.1 70.7 0.7 2.0 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 3.5 4.4 4.5 2.2 76.2 72.8 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 5.7 6.0 4.7 2.0 72.4 71.3 2.5 3.5 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 74.0 73.5 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 2.5 2.5 2.9 1.8 68.7 69.4 0.0 1.0 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 2.5 2.9 1.0 2.8 80.8 80.3 -0.7 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 3.4 4.1 4.5 2.2 74.4 72.8 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -2.6 -2.9 0.3 2.0 72.8 72.3 -7.5 -5.9 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 4.4 3.8 2.9 1.9 71.8 72.9 0.7 2.0 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 3.8 3.4 1.2 1.9 72.5 71.7 0.9 1.6 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 3.9 4.3 2.7 2.2 76.8 75.9 0.4 1.7 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 2.7 2.5 1.7 2.3 75.4 75.3 -0.6 0.6 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 2.9 3.0 1.7 1.9 71.1 71.3 0.3 1.7 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.4 2.6 1.9 71.4 70.6 1.8 2.4 3.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 4.6 5.3 4.2 2.6 84.1 82.4 1.1 2.5 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 4.5 4.7 2.2 2.2 74.9 74.5 0.8 2.6 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 4.2 4.1 4.3 2.2 75.6 73.3 0.5 1.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 1.6 2.1 0.8 2.0 72.2 71.3 -0.6 0.2 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 3.7 4.3 4.5 2.2 76.7 73.7 0.4 1.9 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7 2.2 72.3 71.1 -3.9 -2.5 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 3.6 3.4 4.1 1.9 71.3 70.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 3.5 3.9 4.5 2.2 75.8 74.0 0.2 1.8 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 3.2 4.0 4.3 2.2 76.0 74.9 0.7 1.4 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 3.5 3.4 2.8 1.9 72.0 71.7 1.0 1.6 3.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 3.2 4.3 3.8 2.0 71.3 69.2 1.1 1.7 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 2.9 2.9 1.3 2.3 74.3 75.5 0.4 1.6 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 3.6 4.9 4.2 2.0 71.5 69.5 0.9 1.8 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.3 76.9 76.0 -0.7 0.9 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 1.6 1.7 0.0 2.2 74.8 73.7 -3.4 -1.1 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 4.0 4.7 4.7 2.2 74.5 73.2 0.7 2.3 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------