***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 54.8 112.0 62.4 59.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 39.8 45.8 53.4 109.3 64.2 58.3 26.0 35.8 46.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 47.6 57.6 55.4 109.1 64.3 58.2 35.7 41.6 58.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 61.3 68.1 62.2 111.5 67.0 59.1 46.8 58.2 68.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 51.1 55.4 61.6 109.6 64.3 57.8 39.9 47.1 56.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 46.3 46.8 71.1 106.4 59.2 56.8 38.2 44.2 48.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 45.7 45.2 52.7 109.7 66.9 58.7 19.9 33.5 44.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 80.9 83.7 66.0 108.5 63.0 57.2 57.5 76.3 86.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 43.5 48.9 61.7 111.2 67.1 58.2 34.3 40.0 47.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 53.9 64.5 67.2 109.6 65.5 58.1 42.1 49.4 64.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 51.1 54.4 59.2 109.0 62.8 57.5 36.7 47.5 54.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 51.8 51.6 56.8 106.5 59.1 55.0 39.1 48.4 56.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 51.7 56.8 65.1 108.3 62.8 56.6 40.5 47.7 57.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 63.1 61.4 66.9 104.9 59.6 55.9 48.6 59.8 66.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 47.7 51.2 58.7 115.9 68.7 61.1 34.7 44.1 50.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 46.3 46.4 61.0 107.2 61.9 55.8 34.1 41.0 48.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 39.9 43.1 51.4 108.6 62.1 57.4 26.8 36.8 43.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 44.9 47.0 73.1 106.6 62.4 56.1 34.0 41.4 47.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 46.3 48.8 53.8 107.5 62.3 57.3 27.4 42.1 52.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 49.0 47.4 83.3 107.1 61.3 56.7 38.9 44.2 50.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 42.4 53.0 56.7 110.5 67.0 57.3 31.6 37.1 51.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 41.2 41.4 51.8 104.2 59.4 55.1 31.4 38.0 43.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 48.9 50.2 55.8 105.5 60.1 56.3 31.2 46.5 51.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 53.7 58.1 65.6 106.8 62.4 56.6 41.4 50.4 59.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 45.5 47.4 63.8 111.2 63.6 58.0 35.2 42.8 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 52.2 51.4 59.8 105.2 59.1 55.5 34.9 48.4 52.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 41.9 44.7 61.1 111.6 63.0 58.9 29.1 37.2 45.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 45.2 48.6 60.4 112.1 66.7 59.1 33.3 42.0 48.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 73.7 76.6 76.9 105.7 60.8 55.9 54.2 67.7 85.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 43.1 48.9 54.3 110.6 66.5 59.5 22.8 39.3 48.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------