***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 13.1 97.5 56.9 48.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 5.1 11.4 84.9 48.7 44.6 1.0 5.3 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.9 12.8 94.9 56.0 47.3 1.4 5.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.6 15.5 101.6 58.4 49.2 4.6 8.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.4 15.3 103.9 59.1 50.1 1.9 5.7 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.8 18.9 100.5 53.8 51.0 2.5 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.0 11.5 85.7 47.4 44.8 0.7 2.6 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.0 16.8 108.0 59.6 52.6 4.5 9.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.1 15.2 105.5 61.8 50.5 1.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.3 17.0 106.9 60.4 51.8 2.6 4.9 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.7 4.9 14.4 104.4 57.8 51.2 1.5 3.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.4 14.2 106.8 59.2 52.2 1.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.6 16.5 105.3 56.9 52.0 2.7 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.4 16.5 98.7 55.1 49.0 3.8 6.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.5 14.4 100.3 58.7 48.6 1.4 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.0 15.2 102.0 56.9 50.7 2.4 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.9 10.9 83.6 45.1 43.4 1.2 4.1 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.0 19.2 106.4 58.9 51.4 2.1 4.3 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.5 3.2 11.7 86.4 50.6 45.3 1.5 3.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.5 22.1 107.9 58.6 53.8 3.2 4.7 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.2 13.8 103.3 60.0 49.7 0.6 4.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.1 11.5 84.1 43.8 44.2 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.8 12.7 90.5 54.4 46.5 1.6 4.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.0 16.4 101.7 56.8 49.4 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.7 15.6 97.9 54.9 48.3 2.7 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.6 5.9 15.5 103.2 55.9 51.7 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.6 14.8 95.9 54.8 48.4 1.4 4.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.0 15.3 102.4 58.1 49.6 0.7 5.9 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.7 20.1 105.8 60.9 51.4 5.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.8 2.8 11.9 87.9 51.5 45.7 0.2 2.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------