***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 13.6 108.0 55.5 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.5 13.0 101.5 55.5 52.0 1.7 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.2 14.5 107.6 56.5 54.4 2.6 4.8 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.8 16.6 112.2 63.2 56.1 6.6 9.5 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.3 10.2 16.7 109.6 61.5 55.6 2.4 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.0 21.0 119.5 66.9 58.5 6.5 8.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.9 6.8 12.6 100.8 55.2 53.1 0.7 5.7 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.3 27.1 19.1 120.0 67.0 59.1 6.8 14.5 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.0 17.0 111.8 58.8 56.2 1.5 4.6 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.3 12.2 19.2 118.2 64.0 58.4 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.0 12.2 16.7 112.5 62.3 56.4 3.1 4.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.1 14.0 16.8 115.7 64.1 57.6 2.3 8.6 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.3 18.3 19.1 116.4 65.5 58.1 5.6 11.5 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.2 18.3 18.6 111.6 61.8 55.6 4.8 11.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 16.8 16.0 116.0 66.8 56.1 1.9 6.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.0 13.7 17.5 112.1 62.3 56.0 2.0 6.7 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.3 11.7 94.0 55.8 50.1 2.2 5.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 10.7 21.1 119.7 65.2 59.1 3.4 8.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 13.6 103.0 55.0 51.8 1.7 6.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.4 23.0 117.9 65.9 58.3 5.5 9.7 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.8 15.2 110.3 58.0 55.2 2.8 5.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.0 7.8 12.5 96.1 52.7 49.4 3.4 7.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.0 14.7 105.3 55.2 52.3 3.0 10.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.6 9.1 18.3 113.8 60.2 56.6 3.6 8.4 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.1 8.8 16.7 113.8 59.3 56.5 3.6 6.6 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.8 12.3 17.9 117.4 66.2 58.8 2.1 5.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.4 15.4 111.7 58.1 55.9 2.4 4.8 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.1 12.0 16.5 112.9 63.8 55.5 0.9 5.3 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 17.1 21.8 118.2 65.5 58.8 8.3 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.7 5.0 13.5 104.6 54.0 53.5 1.5 4.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------