***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 15.5 124.8 68.0 60.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 5.3 11.0 16.6 135.0 71.3 65.9 0.7 3.3 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.2 8.0 15.6 121.7 69.5 60.3 2.8 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 7.7 12.3 15.8 127.7 66.1 63.2 4.3 6.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.4 15.3 15.5 120.7 66.3 60.7 4.4 7.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.0 13.8 105.3 58.1 54.2 2.2 6.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 8.9 8.9 16.1 132.0 70.2 64.3 1.2 3.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 14.7 16.3 14.8 101.3 56.2 52.8 6.9 11.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.9 12.7 15.4 118.8 67.6 60.1 2.7 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.3 15.2 103.5 57.3 52.9 3.6 9.7 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.6 15.1 14.8 118.2 66.3 59.7 3.2 10.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 8.7 8.4 13.1 104.3 60.0 54.0 2.9 5.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.1 14.1 108.5 58.5 54.8 4.8 7.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.6 16.7 101.1 61.7 54.9 5.2 9.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 6.8 15.0 15.4 143.2 74.8 67.7 2.6 5.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.6 11.0 14.2 114.2 62.1 57.9 2.7 5.6 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 48 52 100 9.9 12.2 16.7 138.8 71.1 67.4 2.4 6.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.0 6.4 14.9 87.9 47.1 45.8 4.2 6.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 7.7 11.6 16.3 128.6 69.9 64.3 0.6 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.3 5.3 17.1 91.2 48.5 48.7 3.4 5.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.0 8.9 15.0 118.2 66.4 59.9 3.5 6.3 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 8.0 11.3 15.6 123.3 65.3 63.0 1.7 6.6 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.5 9.9 16.1 117.8 67.7 61.4 2.3 3.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.1 15.6 100.9 57.7 52.6 4.5 9.0 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.4 9.9 16.6 119.1 67.1 59.3 1.8 5.3 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.8 5.8 12.2 96.4 52.5 51.3 2.6 5.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.6 16.5 121.6 67.4 59.2 0.8 5.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 6.1 9.7 14.8 131.5 67.1 64.1 0.9 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.2 9.0 15.7 87.2 46.5 46.2 4.4 11.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 6.5 9.4 16.6 134.0 71.0 64.4 1.4 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------