***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 -0.1 52.1 50.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.3 13.5 -0.1 51.6 50.3 14.8 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.0 14.0 0.1 54.1 52.9 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.7 12.2 0.1 56.1 51.9 7.2 8.2 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.7 12.8 0.2 56.6 53.6 15.4 16.5 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.5 11.0 0.4 57.2 55.6 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.3 13.3 -0.2 51.3 49.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.3 11.3 0.3 58.2 54.6 2.7 3.7 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.4 13.3 0.2 56.8 53.6 14.9 16.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 12.2 0.3 57.3 54.8 14.8 16.0 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.6 12.5 0.3 56.9 54.7 15.2 16.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.8 12.1 0.2 57.7 54.2 13.9 15.3 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.5 11.7 0.2 57.4 54.4 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.0 13.2 0.3 54.3 54.8 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.8 12.7 0.0 55.2 50.4 14.9 15.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.0 12.2 0.3 56.9 54.5 15.4 16.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.3 13.1 -0.2 51.8 48.8 14.0 14.3 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.9 11.5 0.3 57.3 55.2 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.6 13.7 0.0 52.0 51.7 14.8 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.9 9.0 0.2 57.1 53.9 9.1 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.3 13.8 0.2 56.3 53.2 15.1 16.2 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.5 13.4 0.0 52.1 51.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.1 15.9 13.9 0.1 52.7 53.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.1 13.1 0.3 56.1 55.0 15.2 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.1 12.4 0.0 54.4 50.9 15.0 15.9 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.9 11.2 0.1 59.4 53.5 14.3 15.5 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.8 13.0 -0.1 52.2 50.3 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.4 12.6 0.1 55.8 52.4 15.3 16.2 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.8 10.5 0.3 57.1 55.2 9.0 10.5 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.4 13.7 -0.1 51.5 50.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------