***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.2 -0.2 49.0 48.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.4 14.9 -0.2 46.5 47.6 14.6 15.6 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.4 15.4 0.0 50.0 49.3 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.3 9.5 13.9 0.1 50.1 51.3 8.3 9.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 15.2 17.4 14.2 0.2 50.4 52.1 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 14.6 17.5 12.4 0.3 53.1 53.3 14.3 17.1 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.7 14.8 -0.3 45.6 47.1 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.4 12.8 0.3 53.9 52.5 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.8 14.5 0.2 50.1 51.7 15.2 16.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.8 16.8 13.5 0.2 51.7 52.0 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 15.3 17.6 13.8 0.2 52.1 52.7 15.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.3 16.9 13.6 0.3 53.8 52.8 14.8 16.5 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 15.5 18.0 13.0 0.2 52.2 52.4 15.6 18.0 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.5 14.3 0.1 52.0 50.1 14.5 15.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.4 17.3 14.2 0.0 53.1 51.0 16.1 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 15.7 17.9 13.5 0.2 51.8 52.5 15.9 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.4 14.6 -0.3 43.6 46.6 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 14.2 15.9 12.8 0.2 51.7 51.2 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.3 15.1 -0.1 47.5 48.3 14.8 15.5 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.6 12.1 10.5 0.2 53.5 51.1 9.7 11.8 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 15.0 16.7 15.1 0.1 50.3 50.4 15.3 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.3 14.8 -0.2 44.9 47.1 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.2 15.2 0.0 49.3 49.2 14.8 15.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 14.2 15.6 14.2 0.1 51.2 50.6 14.6 15.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 15.0 16.8 13.9 -0.1 48.5 49.0 15.4 16.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 14.5 17.0 12.7 0.2 53.1 52.3 14.9 16.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 15.1 16.2 14.4 -0.2 46.9 48.0 14.8 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 15.6 17.6 14.2 0.1 53.1 52.1 16.2 17.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.9 11.0 11.8 0.2 52.3 50.9 9.7 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.6 16.0 15.1 -0.2 47.3 48.0 14.8 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------