***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 14.6 -0.2 46.9 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.8 14.4 -0.1 48.7 50.1 16.2 16.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.1 14.8 -0.1 48.6 50.4 16.6 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.2 13.2 -0.3 47.0 49.0 8.1 9.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.0 13.5 -0.3 45.5 49.1 16.8 17.2 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.6 11.7 -0.3 42.7 49.1 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.6 14.2 -0.2 48.0 49.2 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.8 12.1 -0.3 46.4 48.9 3.3 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.8 16.9 13.9 -0.2 46.2 49.6 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.3 12.8 -0.2 46.9 49.4 16.1 17.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.6 16.6 13.2 -0.3 43.9 48.9 16.3 16.9 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.1 12.9 -0.3 44.2 48.4 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.5 12.3 -0.3 42.0 48.4 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.4 13.8 0.0 52.2 51.4 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 16.8 13.4 -0.3 47.8 48.8 15.4 16.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.9 16.8 12.9 -0.3 42.8 49.0 16.6 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.3 14.1 -0.2 49.0 49.9 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.6 12.2 -0.2 48.7 50.1 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.7 14.6 -0.1 49.0 50.8 15.9 16.7 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.6 9.9 -0.2 49.6 49.9 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.9 14.5 -0.2 46.1 49.7 16.6 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.0 14.4 0.0 49.7 51.6 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.2 14.7 0.0 49.8 51.3 16.5 17.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.0 13.7 -0.1 49.7 50.7 16.5 17.0 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.5 16.9 13.3 -0.3 46.1 49.0 16.1 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.0 11.9 -0.4 45.5 48.5 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.2 13.8 -0.3 46.4 49.2 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.1 13.4 -0.3 46.6 49.0 15.6 17.4 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.7 11.2 -0.1 49.9 50.6 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.9 14.5 -0.2 48.9 50.0 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------