***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 -1.5 32.3 41.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 13.5 14.0 11.6 -1.4 33.8 42.0 13.9 15.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 14.0 14.1 11.8 -1.5 32.0 41.1 14.1 15.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 5.2 5.2 10.3 -1.4 33.0 41.9 5.2 7.3 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 12.9 14.2 10.5 -1.5 32.2 41.4 14.4 15.7 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 11.8 13.2 8.9 -1.3 33.3 42.0 13.2 14.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.8 11.5 -1.5 32.2 42.2 13.8 15.3 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 1.3 2.6 9.2 -1.4 33.7 42.0 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 13.2 13.7 10.8 -1.6 31.4 40.6 13.9 15.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 13.1 14.2 9.8 -1.5 32.2 41.4 14.3 15.6 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 12.8 14.0 10.2 -1.5 32.5 41.6 14.1 15.8 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 11.8 13.8 10.0 -1.4 33.0 41.8 13.8 14.9 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 12.7 14.8 9.5 -1.4 32.1 42.1 14.9 16.0 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 14.0 14.6 10.8 -1.5 34.1 41.3 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 12.5 13.6 10.7 -1.2 32.1 41.9 13.8 14.9 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 12.5 15.0 9.9 -1.4 32.6 41.8 15.1 15.6 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 12.5 13.3 11.4 -1.4 33.7 42.3 13.3 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 12.8 13.6 9.2 -1.5 32.2 41.8 13.7 15.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 13.4 14.3 11.8 -1.5 33.9 41.7 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.1 9.3 7.1 -1.2 38.2 43.7 9.0 10.0 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 13.4 14.1 11.4 -1.6 31.8 40.8 14.2 15.6 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 13.4 14.0 11.6 -1.4 34.7 42.1 13.9 15.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 13.9 14.5 11.8 -1.5 33.7 41.3 14.5 15.8 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 13.4 14.4 10.6 -1.6 31.6 41.0 14.6 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 13.5 14.0 10.4 -1.4 32.9 41.8 14.0 15.4 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 12.8 14.0 9.3 -1.2 34.6 42.6 13.9 15.7 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 13.7 14.5 11.1 -1.4 33.1 42.1 14.5 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 12.6 13.1 10.5 -1.4 31.7 41.7 13.1 15.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.2 9.4 8.3 -1.4 35.0 42.8 9.0 10.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.9 11.7 -1.5 32.2 41.8 13.9 15.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------