***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 1.6 65.8 66.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 12.2 13.5 13.0 1.4 65.7 64.8 10.3 11.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 15.1 14.7 14.0 2.1 67.9 69.4 10.5 12.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 7.9 8.7 11.5 2.0 67.5 67.8 1.5 5.4 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.2 13.0 2.5 69.8 70.7 9.9 13.0 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 15.6 15.8 11.0 2.7 71.1 71.3 7.8 12.0 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 12.1 13.7 12.6 1.2 66.1 63.5 10.2 11.6 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 3.8 4.7 11.3 2.5 68.1 69.6 -1.4 0.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 16.0 15.7 14.0 2.6 69.5 71.4 9.8 12.5 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.0 15.9 12.6 2.7 69.9 71.2 9.1 12.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 15.6 16.0 13.0 2.6 70.0 70.8 9.4 12.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 15.1 15.1 12.0 2.4 68.9 69.4 8.3 12.5 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.0 12.0 2.5 69.4 69.8 9.0 12.6 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 16.1 15.6 13.8 2.6 72.7 71.9 11.0 12.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 14.0 14.8 12.5 1.4 65.9 64.0 10.5 13.7 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 17.2 17.4 12.6 2.6 71.0 70.9 9.7 13.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 11.3 12.4 12.3 1.1 64.1 62.3 9.6 10.7 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.0 11.8 2.8 72.2 71.7 9.1 12.0 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 12.5 13.5 13.4 1.6 66.5 66.8 10.5 11.8 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 10.6 10.0 8.6 1.9 66.8 66.8 4.0 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 15.4 14.8 14.3 2.4 68.4 70.6 10.4 12.9 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 12.1 13.5 12.9 1.4 65.3 65.2 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 14.8 14.9 14.0 2.1 68.7 69.4 10.9 12.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.1 16.0 13.6 2.7 73.0 72.4 10.8 12.5 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 14.9 14.7 12.2 1.7 66.5 66.7 10.1 12.6 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 12.3 15.3 10.7 2.0 66.5 67.3 8.5 11.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 13.0 14.4 12.6 1.5 65.9 65.8 10.5 12.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 16.0 15.7 12.4 2.1 68.6 68.2 9.9 13.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.8 11.6 10.7 2.5 71.7 71.0 4.1 7.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 14.0 13.6 13.2 1.5 66.5 65.8 10.5 11.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------