***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 0.4 57.2 58.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.7 4.3 0.2 56.1 55.2 4.0 4.6 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.0 4.4 0.4 59.5 58.6 6.2 6.6 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -0.2 1.1 2.3 0.2 57.0 55.7 -0.1 1.0 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 4.0 3.7 2.7 0.4 61.7 59.8 2.8 3.4 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 3.1 3.0 0.8 0.4 63.1 60.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.9 4.2 0.2 55.9 54.9 4.3 4.8 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -2.1 -2.1 1.2 0.6 67.7 62.1 -3.5 -2.9 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.6 3.2 0.4 58.8 59.1 3.8 4.3 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.7 1.9 0.6 64.5 61.3 4.1 4.3 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.5 2.3 0.4 62.7 59.2 3.7 4.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 3.4 3.3 1.9 0.5 65.3 60.3 2.4 2.8 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.1 1.4 0.4 62.2 58.9 3.2 3.7 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.1 3.2 0.5 64.5 60.0 4.6 4.9 5.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 2.9 0.0 53.0 52.3 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.0 1.9 0.4 62.3 59.1 4.2 4.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.6 4.0 0.0 52.0 52.3 4.0 4.6 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 66.1 62.9 1.7 2.4 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.7 4.3 0.2 58.5 56.3 4.0 4.5 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.8 70.3 65.0 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.7 4.1 0.4 60.4 58.6 3.9 4.4 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.2 4.1 0.2 55.9 54.7 3.5 4.1 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.2 4.1 0.3 60.4 57.4 3.7 4.1 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.5 3.0 0.5 62.7 60.0 3.9 4.3 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.7 3.3 0.3 59.7 57.4 3.8 4.3 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.7 1.4 0.4 62.8 58.6 3.0 3.5 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.3 4.0 0.4 59.3 58.0 4.4 4.7 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.0 3.3 2.6 0.2 56.0 54.9 2.3 2.7 3.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.8 69.6 64.6 0.6 1.5 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.2 4.4 0.3 57.9 56.6 4.3 5.0 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------