***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.8 0.2 58.7 53.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.8 5.7 0.3 58.4 55.1 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.1 5.6 0.3 58.4 54.5 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.1 1.9 3.8 0.3 54.3 55.2 0.3 1.6 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.6 5.0 3.9 0.4 55.4 56.0 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.3 2.1 0.3 55.3 54.9 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.1 5.7 0.3 58.4 54.7 5.1 6.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -1.4 2.4 0.4 53.5 55.6 -2.5 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.0 5.6 4.4 0.4 55.8 55.7 4.4 5.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.8 3.1 0.4 54.3 55.9 4.4 5.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 3.5 0.4 54.1 56.3 4.1 5.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.3 3.1 0.3 54.5 55.8 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.3 2.6 0.3 55.7 56.1 4.2 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.8 5.9 4.3 0.4 53.4 55.0 5.2 5.8 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.2 4.3 0.2 51.7 53.9 4.7 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.3 3.1 0.4 56.0 56.3 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 7.0 6.7 5.5 0.3 59.0 54.4 4.9 5.8 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.0 2.5 0.5 54.7 56.4 2.7 3.0 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.3 5.6 0.4 58.3 55.4 4.7 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 56.4 56.9 0.1 1.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.1 6.0 5.2 0.3 57.0 55.0 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.6 5.5 0.4 60.1 55.6 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.7 5.4 0.4 57.5 55.6 4.2 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.6 4.1 0.4 55.3 55.6 4.5 5.1 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.2 4.4 0.2 54.8 53.9 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.0 2.7 0.3 54.5 54.3 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.7 5.2 0.3 57.0 53.7 4.1 6.0 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.5 4.1 0.3 53.6 55.2 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.6 1.9 0.5 56.0 56.7 1.3 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.7 6.4 5.7 0.3 57.8 54.8 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------