***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.5 -0.3 42.2 49.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.1 3.7 3.1 -0.6 38.6 48.8 3.4 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.4 3.2 -0.3 41.7 50.5 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.3 1.5 0.0 45.4 52.5 -1.2 0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.4 1.5 -0.1 42.5 51.7 1.1 3.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.0 2.9 -0.1 0.2 52.0 55.9 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.9 3.0 -0.6 38.8 48.4 3.5 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.7 -2.9 0.3 0.2 50.3 55.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.7 2.0 -0.2 41.6 50.9 2.9 4.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.1 0.8 0.1 46.6 53.6 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.4 3.4 1.2 0.0 44.4 52.8 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 49.2 54.3 0.8 2.6 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 45.6 53.2 1.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.3 2.0 -0.3 43.8 50.7 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.0 2.1 0.0 48.9 53.2 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 43.8 53.3 2.9 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.9 3.9 2.8 -0.7 36.4 47.5 3.5 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 49.0 54.5 0.1 1.7 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.8 3.1 -0.5 40.0 49.2 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -2.4 -1.2 -1.4 0.4 49.6 57.0 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.4 2.9 -0.2 43.1 50.4 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.4 2.9 -0.6 39.2 47.9 3.1 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.1 3.0 -0.4 41.8 49.7 2.3 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.6 1.8 -0.2 46.8 52.0 2.8 3.7 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.0 2.1 -0.2 43.6 50.7 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 1.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 48.8 53.7 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.3 2.8 -0.3 42.4 49.8 2.9 5.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.0 47.0 53.0 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -1.1 0.9 -0.4 0.2 50.3 55.6 0.0 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.1 3.2 -0.5 39.7 49.4 3.8 4.8 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------