***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 4.0 1.6 72.6 71.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 2.0 2.8 3.4 1.0 65.3 64.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.0 3.8 1.5 72.2 70.6 2.5 3.5 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 -1.8 -1.0 1.0 0.7 59.9 59.4 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 2.8 3.1 2.3 1.6 71.5 70.4 0.0 1.0 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 1.6 1.8 -0.1 1.5 67.4 66.9 -0.7 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 2.2 3.3 3.3 1.1 63.9 64.1 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -3.0 -3.0 0.6 1.9 71.3 72.3 -7.5 -5.9 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 4.5 3.9 2.7 1.5 72.7 71.4 0.7 2.0 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 3.8 3.4 1.5 1.8 72.3 72.2 0.9 1.6 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 3.4 3.4 1.8 1.5 69.8 69.3 0.4 1.7 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 2.2 2.3 1.2 1.6 69.6 70.4 -0.6 0.6 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 2.8 2.5 1.0 1.5 68.4 67.8 0.3 1.7 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 4.7 4.5 2.9 1.6 71.9 72.1 1.8 2.4 3.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 2.7 2.6 1.6 0.0 52.0 51.5 1.1 2.5 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 4.1 3.7 1.3 1.4 69.2 67.5 0.8 2.6 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 2.3 2.9 2.8 0.6 60.1 58.7 0.5 1.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 1.8 2.3 1.0 2.0 76.1 74.7 -0.6 0.2 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 2.3 3.2 3.5 1.2 67.2 66.0 0.4 1.9 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.2 -0.9 2.3 76.2 75.7 -3.9 -2.5 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 4.1 3.4 3.7 1.5 71.6 71.6 1.3 2.0 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 2.1 2.6 3.3 0.9 63.9 62.8 0.2 1.8 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 3.0 3.2 3.4 1.2 69.8 67.7 0.7 1.4 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 3.6 3.3 2.5 1.5 70.9 71.2 1.0 1.6 3.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 3.3 4.1 2.8 1.4 68.9 67.5 1.1 1.7 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 1.8 2.5 0.7 1.5 64.8 65.8 0.4 1.6 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 3.8 4.9 3.4 1.6 71.3 70.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.4 56.9 56.2 -0.7 0.9 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 2.0 3.3 0.3 2.3 80.6 78.1 -3.4 -1.1 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 3.7 3.8 3.7 1.3 70.5 67.1 0.7 2.3 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------