***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 40.4 84.8 41.8 40.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 20.1 30.6 40.1 88.0 44.5 42.5 25.7 35.4 46.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 25.9 41.5 42.5 89.8 46.4 43.1 33.0 42.0 60.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 42.2 54.3 49.4 90.7 49.3 43.2 44.6 54.7 61.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 36.7 45.0 49.1 91.9 49.8 43.2 37.2 45.1 53.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 32.7 42.9 58.0 93.4 50.0 44.7 37.6 42.9 48.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 17.6 23.7 39.4 85.6 42.4 41.1 19.8 34.4 39.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 52.7 70.5 54.4 94.4 48.5 45.2 59.0 73.1 86.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 28.6 38.1 49.2 93.5 49.3 43.8 34.6 38.1 44.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 38.5 51.8 55.1 94.8 49.9 44.8 43.4 51.8 68.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 34.9 48.7 47.1 93.0 50.9 44.9 33.7 47.5 56.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 32.0 45.3 47.4 94.0 51.5 45.9 36.5 45.2 56.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 37.5 45.7 52.0 92.8 49.9 44.4 40.7 45.7 56.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 45.4 58.8 54.7 94.3 49.5 45.4 48.6 58.9 69.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 30.8 40.3 45.0 85.9 48.9 41.8 33.0 41.5 48.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 29.8 40.1 49.4 93.2 51.6 45.1 32.7 39.5 48.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 21.5 29.4 38.4 86.8 44.1 42.1 25.4 33.0 41.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 32.7 41.8 62.4 96.6 52.7 46.2 34.7 40.8 51.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 25.9 40.7 40.6 88.7 45.2 42.7 27.4 42.6 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 35.1 43.9 68.9 94.8 48.7 45.2 38.2 44.2 53.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 28.2 34.5 44.0 89.8 46.7 42.3 31.0 36.4 49.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 26.5 34.5 38.7 85.4 43.0 40.6 31.0 35.3 40.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 29.2 44.6 42.7 89.7 46.6 43.4 31.1 46.3 54.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 39.9 52.2 54.3 94.8 51.3 45.2 43.8 51.3 62.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 30.8 36.9 49.2 87.4 45.8 41.2 31.2 37.3 48.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 32.2 47.7 48.3 90.2 47.8 43.2 34.7 48.7 54.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 24.9 31.0 45.9 85.1 41.0 40.5 26.3 37.3 48.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 32.7 40.7 47.6 90.0 48.8 43.5 33.1 40.8 48.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 50.9 71.3 65.3 96.3 51.6 46.0 53.6 69.3 85.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 20.6 35.4 40.5 87.6 46.0 42.3 21.0 39.3 49.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------