***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.9 121.5 67.9 51.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.5 15.5 11.2 134.5 76.4 54.6 4.3 9.4 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.9 19.4 12.0 143.2 75.0 54.5 6.1 9.3 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.0 22.6 13.6 122.5 69.5 52.8 13.0 17.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 16.9 29.4 13.6 130.2 72.9 54.3 7.5 12.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.0 16.7 16.6 121.0 65.4 54.9 4.0 10.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.3 15.3 10.9 125.8 73.2 54.0 2.6 5.1 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.4 26.4 15.5 128.3 67.6 56.1 17.4 21.7 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.3 19.6 13.8 139.9 74.8 55.5 6.1 11.9 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.5 23.6 15.8 138.6 70.7 56.4 12.3 15.6 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.0 19.6 13.2 128.8 69.7 54.7 7.2 12.3 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 16.4 13.0 121.6 66.1 55.1 5.0 9.6 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.6 16.3 14.2 115.3 62.8 54.2 7.8 12.7 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 21.7 28.2 15.3 145.2 76.4 56.0 10.1 19.4 26.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.5 15.2 13.0 123.4 68.4 52.0 3.7 8.8 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.4 18.3 13.6 123.3 67.1 54.6 9.0 12.4 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.9 16.1 10.7 124.5 72.3 53.2 3.2 8.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 21.0 17.7 145.4 71.9 57.4 9.6 14.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 6.1 21.9 11.4 141.5 77.4 55.2 6.4 12.4 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 15.7 19.4 131.2 68.1 56.8 6.1 9.3 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.9 16.1 12.2 135.9 72.4 53.7 6.3 8.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.0 16.7 10.7 123.9 71.9 53.4 5.1 12.0 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.5 22.7 12.0 149.5 76.0 56.0 8.0 14.2 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.1 22.1 15.3 152.0 74.7 56.7 9.4 13.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.7 14.3 12.9 115.0 64.7 50.7 5.7 10.5 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.7 16.3 13.1 113.3 64.8 54.7 6.4 11.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.7 13.9 12.1 114.4 64.7 50.9 6.0 10.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.1 20.4 13.6 126.6 69.9 53.4 5.0 8.3 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.8 27.0 18.4 142.4 71.9 57.1 13.7 18.2 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.2 16.0 11.3 135.0 77.8 54.6 2.7 9.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------