***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 14.7 114.4 68.7 56.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.6 13.5 104.0 62.4 51.0 0.4 3.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 1.4 10.8 15.8 123.4 72.7 58.6 0.4 2.9 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.2 14.9 18.7 134.5 73.4 63.0 3.1 8.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.3 12.7 18.8 138.3 72.6 63.9 1.0 5.4 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.7 19.8 121.1 67.6 58.6 3.2 5.8 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.8 6.7 13.2 100.7 60.1 50.4 0.3 2.6 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.2 19.8 133.7 70.2 62.1 4.5 11.6 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.3 18.7 134.8 70.4 62.7 0.8 3.2 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 10.7 7.5 20.5 134.3 71.6 62.6 1.5 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.9 9.4 18.0 141.5 76.1 64.8 1.2 3.2 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.0 11.4 17.6 138.5 71.7 63.4 0.9 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.3 18.7 128.5 69.8 61.2 3.9 6.9 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 9.5 10.9 20.1 127.7 71.7 60.0 1.8 3.9 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.6 8.6 16.6 120.5 72.3 58.3 2.8 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 9.1 10.7 18.6 137.4 74.3 64.0 2.1 5.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.5 5.5 12.4 97.1 59.2 47.8 0.7 3.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.0 23.4 134.4 73.0 63.1 1.5 3.0 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.7 14.0 109.7 64.5 52.8 0.4 2.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.2 12.6 25.0 129.5 70.0 60.6 2.9 5.4 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 10.7 13.7 16.6 129.3 73.1 62.0 0.4 2.3 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.5 4.8 12.4 95.6 57.2 47.1 1.1 3.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.2 9.4 15.3 119.3 66.9 56.1 0.8 2.7 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 10.1 11.0 20.6 133.1 73.0 62.2 1.6 6.3 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 10.4 12.5 18.3 124.7 76.5 61.5 1.6 5.1 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.0 11.4 17.3 125.3 68.6 58.9 0.4 6.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.4 10.5 16.6 113.3 70.8 57.4 1.1 3.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 9.8 12.2 18.0 130.4 73.5 61.0 1.3 4.4 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 14.5 24.1 131.4 71.6 61.7 4.1 7.4 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.0 8.0 14.1 108.6 65.5 53.1 0.3 1.5 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------