***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.4 88.4 55.3 43.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 1.7 7.2 11.2 97.9 60.1 45.7 2.9 4.9 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.1 10.7 88.5 54.2 45.4 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.8 12.4 13.2 100.4 60.7 48.3 6.5 9.5 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.2 12.8 96.3 59.7 46.3 2.2 6.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.9 15.5 17.8 114.6 65.3 55.8 5.6 7.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 1.4 7.5 10.8 96.7 62.3 45.7 1.8 4.3 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.9 19.3 14.4 107.5 63.0 52.0 8.4 13.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.7 10.0 12.5 94.4 60.7 45.8 1.2 5.8 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.4 14.0 98.4 60.1 48.7 2.2 7.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.4 13.1 12.3 100.2 61.2 49.4 3.0 4.8 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.9 14.7 13.1 111.5 64.9 52.7 2.7 10.0 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.8 18.1 15.3 115.1 63.7 54.9 5.3 12.9 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.9 15.5 14.2 95.2 55.3 50.2 6.1 12.1 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.3 12.8 12.2 92.6 61.4 46.2 2.0 6.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.5 14.5 13.8 106.8 63.1 51.8 2.0 6.9 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.6 7.3 10.8 101.6 61.8 46.6 2.8 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.7 15.7 95.7 58.9 50.2 3.4 9.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.8 9.2 11.1 96.0 58.7 46.0 1.9 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.1 18.5 104.8 60.2 53.9 5.6 7.6 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.1 11.2 91.7 57.9 45.0 2.8 6.4 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.2 10.4 11.1 101.8 62.4 47.1 3.7 7.5 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.1 10.3 11.3 91.8 55.2 47.2 4.4 8.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.5 13.4 89.9 55.7 47.8 4.4 9.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.7 13.1 96.4 56.3 46.5 4.2 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.7 14.5 116.0 63.8 53.2 3.6 6.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.0 12.1 92.3 54.8 45.3 2.3 4.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.6 12.1 12.6 96.2 61.8 47.5 3.1 7.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.1 16.0 16.8 98.8 58.7 51.8 8.2 12.0 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.8 4.9 10.9 93.8 57.5 45.2 2.8 4.4 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------