***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 31.0 26.9 24.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 0.6 0.0 4.3 33.1 23.7 22.1 1.0 3.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.6 4.0 28.8 21.0 20.9 2.3 5.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 3.4 3.1 3.8 23.7 19.2 17.6 4.9 8.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 2.3 1.0 3.9 24.2 16.6 16.5 4.6 9.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 1.0 0.1 3.7 22.5 12.5 13.0 2.3 6.9 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 0.7 0.2 4.4 34.1 23.4 22.8 1.0 3.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 6.2 5.1 4.6 26.8 14.3 15.1 7.3 15.1 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 2.1 1.8 4.2 27.0 19.6 17.5 4.2 6.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 3.3 2.2 4.8 27.8 16.1 16.2 5.8 11.9 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 2.9 1.9 3.6 23.5 15.3 15.2 3.6 12.0 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 2.2 1.6 3.8 25.0 15.0 15.4 4.4 7.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 1.2 0.1 3.7 23.7 11.7 14.5 3.8 8.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 3.9 2.6 5.2 30.8 18.5 20.0 6.0 10.1 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 0.4 0.0 3.2 21.7 19.3 18.4 0.8 3.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 2.2 1.5 3.4 22.2 14.1 13.9 3.6 7.2 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 1.0 0.8 4.5 37.0 25.2 23.8 2.3 5.7 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 2.7 2.0 5.6 30.2 14.6 17.1 4.3 7.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 0.8 0.1 4.1 31.0 21.6 21.1 0.7 4.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 3.2 2.1 6.0 28.8 13.2 15.6 4.1 5.8 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 2.6 2.3 4.0 26.6 20.4 18.7 3.8 6.8 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 1.1 1.3 4.5 35.5 25.0 23.3 1.7 5.5 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 0.9 0.6 4.1 28.4 18.7 19.5 1.9 3.0 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 4.5 3.4 5.0 29.8 16.6 18.9 5.4 10.4 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 1.7 0.8 4.8 29.0 21.8 21.0 2.0 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 1.5 0.6 3.3 21.3 13.4 13.6 3.1 7.2 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 1.3 0.7 5.2 33.2 24.2 23.6 3.0 4.9 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.1 3.4 22.4 18.6 16.6 0.8 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 4.8 3.7 6.0 30.8 15.2 17.2 6.7 14.2 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 0.7 0.2 4.2 31.7 22.9 22.3 1.5 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------