***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 15.4 1.4 71.4 69.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.1 15.3 1.5 70.9 70.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 16.6 16.8 15.6 1.4 71.8 69.2 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 8.7 9.0 13.6 1.5 71.5 69.1 7.1 8.0 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 16.9 17.4 14.0 1.5 72.3 68.9 15.2 16.0 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.4 12.2 1.5 74.2 69.9 13.9 14.8 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.9 15.9 15.2 1.4 71.0 69.6 14.4 15.2 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 5.1 5.6 12.6 1.6 73.0 69.7 2.5 3.4 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.7 17.0 14.6 1.4 71.8 68.6 14.7 15.7 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 16.6 17.0 13.4 1.5 71.9 68.4 14.5 15.7 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 16.8 17.2 13.8 1.5 72.9 69.4 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 16.4 16.6 13.4 1.6 74.2 70.1 13.5 15.2 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 16.9 17.4 13.0 1.5 75.6 69.4 14.7 16.0 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.5 14.5 1.4 70.1 67.5 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 16.0 16.1 14.1 1.5 70.7 69.5 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.8 13.4 1.5 73.7 69.2 15.1 16.4 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.2 14.9 1.4 70.5 68.9 13.8 14.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.5 12.8 1.5 71.5 68.2 14.2 14.9 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.2 15.5 1.5 71.2 69.9 14.6 15.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 11.8 11.9 10.5 1.7 74.0 70.6 8.7 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.9 15.2 1.4 70.8 68.8 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.2 16.2 15.1 1.4 70.0 68.6 14.6 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.6 16.5 15.5 1.5 71.4 68.9 15.0 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.6 14.4 1.4 70.8 67.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.6 14.0 1.4 70.0 68.7 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.1 12.5 1.6 76.8 72.3 13.9 15.1 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.7 14.6 1.4 70.6 68.8 14.7 15.5 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 16.4 16.6 13.9 1.5 71.5 69.0 14.9 15.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 11.4 11.6 11.9 1.6 72.3 69.4 8.6 10.1 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.3 15.5 1.5 71.5 70.1 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------