***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.0 -0.6 36.6 43.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 14.5 15.2 15.9 -0.6 38.5 44.6 14.7 16.1 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 14.5 15.6 16.1 -0.7 36.8 43.0 15.4 16.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.0 8.6 14.2 -0.8 37.0 41.7 8.0 9.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 14.5 16.0 14.4 -0.9 35.8 41.4 15.9 17.3 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 13.4 14.7 12.6 -0.9 36.4 41.9 14.6 16.2 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 14.1 15.2 15.9 -0.6 38.3 44.4 14.8 16.0 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 2.5 3.5 13.0 -0.9 34.2 41.9 3.5 4.5 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 13.9 15.5 14.9 -0.9 35.7 41.1 15.5 16.2 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 14.0 15.2 13.7 -1.0 34.7 41.0 15.1 17.2 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 14.1 15.8 14.1 -0.9 35.0 41.6 15.7 17.1 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 13.0 14.7 13.8 -0.9 35.1 42.0 14.6 16.0 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 14.3 15.5 13.3 -0.9 35.8 41.7 15.3 17.2 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 14.4 14.5 14.7 -1.0 35.7 41.1 14.4 15.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.4 16.5 14.4 -0.7 39.8 42.9 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 14.6 16.0 13.8 -0.9 34.9 41.8 15.9 17.7 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 14.0 14.7 15.6 -0.6 39.1 44.3 14.1 15.4 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 13.7 15.1 13.1 -1.1 34.3 40.9 14.7 15.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 14.4 15.0 16.0 -0.6 37.6 44.2 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.9 10.1 10.8 -0.9 36.6 42.7 9.6 10.8 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 14.0 15.8 15.5 -0.8 36.1 41.8 15.6 16.4 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.3 15.7 -0.7 37.4 44.0 14.1 15.9 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 14.6 14.9 15.9 -0.8 36.1 43.0 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 14.1 15.2 14.6 -1.0 35.8 41.0 14.8 15.9 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 14.6 15.5 14.5 -0.7 36.0 42.4 15.3 17.0 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 14.1 14.5 13.1 -0.7 37.7 43.2 14.5 16.2 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 14.7 15.6 15.2 -0.7 35.8 43.0 15.4 16.5 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 15.2 16.0 14.3 -0.8 37.3 42.0 16.0 17.5 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.9 9.5 12.1 -1.0 35.3 41.5 9.3 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 14.2 15.5 16.1 -0.6 37.6 44.4 14.8 16.0 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------