***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 14.5 -0.1 51.9 50.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.9 14.5 -0.1 51.6 50.8 16.2 16.8 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.0 14.6 -0.3 48.2 49.2 16.4 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.7 12.6 -0.4 45.4 48.5 7.9 9.3 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.7 16.7 12.8 -0.5 43.4 47.3 16.4 16.8 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.0 14.8 11.1 -0.3 46.0 48.4 14.5 15.1 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 17.1 16.7 14.5 0.0 50.9 51.2 16.0 16.6 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.2 11.3 -0.5 43.7 46.6 3.3 4.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.5 13.3 -0.5 42.2 47.1 16.1 16.7 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.6 16.3 12.1 -0.6 41.3 46.3 15.9 16.9 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.4 12.5 -0.5 44.1 46.8 16.1 16.5 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.6 12.2 -0.5 45.3 46.9 14.7 15.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.2 11.7 -0.4 46.1 47.6 15.6 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.7 13.0 -0.7 42.3 45.8 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.3 12.9 -0.2 46.9 50.6 15.1 16.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.7 16.7 12.2 -0.4 44.7 47.3 16.3 17.0 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.7 14.2 -0.1 50.2 50.3 15.5 15.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.3 11.3 -0.7 42.0 45.5 15.6 16.5 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.8 14.5 -0.2 51.2 50.1 16.1 16.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.6 9.0 -0.5 43.1 46.8 10.0 11.5 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.7 14.0 -0.4 43.9 47.9 16.5 16.8 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.7 14.2 -0.3 48.2 48.9 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.1 14.3 -0.4 48.5 48.8 16.7 17.2 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.8 16.7 13.0 -0.7 42.5 46.2 16.0 17.1 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.8 13.0 -0.3 48.7 49.1 15.8 16.9 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.3 11.5 -0.2 46.4 49.0 14.7 15.5 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.0 13.8 -0.2 51.5 49.9 16.4 16.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.2 12.8 -0.3 44.7 48.7 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.6 10.3 -0.7 42.3 45.7 10.0 11.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.8 14.6 -0.1 51.6 50.8 16.2 16.7 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------