***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 14.8 1.8 68.7 66.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.4 16.6 14.7 1.8 67.0 66.9 14.2 15.0 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 47 53 100 17.0 17.2 14.8 1.7 66.8 65.4 14.5 16.1 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 7.5 9.9 13.1 1.8 66.4 65.8 5.3 7.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 17.3 17.8 13.3 1.7 65.1 65.2 14.5 15.9 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 16.2 17.0 11.6 2.1 65.9 66.9 12.5 14.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.3 14.6 1.9 68.2 67.1 14.0 14.7 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 47 53 100 5.0 5.9 11.8 1.8 66.1 65.3 1.8 3.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 17.0 17.5 13.7 1.6 66.2 64.5 14.1 15.6 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 17.5 17.7 12.5 1.7 65.8 64.3 13.8 16.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 16.5 17.9 12.9 1.8 65.0 65.4 14.0 16.2 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 15.3 17.5 12.7 1.8 65.4 65.8 13.3 14.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 16.1 18.3 12.2 2.0 64.0 66.3 14.4 15.7 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 16.6 17.5 13.5 1.6 63.8 63.7 14.2 16.3 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 16.2 17.1 13.5 1.9 67.8 66.6 13.5 14.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 16.5 18.4 12.7 1.9 64.3 66.1 14.3 16.1 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 15.0 15.4 14.4 1.8 66.3 66.7 13.2 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 16.3 17.2 11.9 1.7 65.5 64.0 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 15.4 16.6 14.8 1.8 65.8 66.4 14.0 15.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 11.4 12.4 9.8 2.1 67.6 66.7 8.3 9.4 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 16.0 17.7 14.3 1.7 66.9 64.8 14.3 15.6 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.4 16.4 14.4 1.7 63.4 65.7 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 16.0 17.1 14.7 1.7 65.3 65.2 14.4 15.7 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 16.6 17.3 13.4 1.6 65.2 63.9 14.4 16.3 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 16.7 17.0 13.3 1.8 68.4 65.7 13.7 15.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 16.7 17.6 11.9 2.0 67.0 67.1 13.5 14.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 16.7 17.0 14.1 1.8 68.8 66.1 14.6 15.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 16.0 17.1 13.3 1.9 66.0 66.0 13.3 15.7 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.1 12.6 11.0 1.9 65.4 64.9 8.1 10.6 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 15.4 16.5 14.8 1.8 67.5 66.8 14.4 15.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------