***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 0.0 16.3 4.7 89.1 88.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 16.2 17.7 16.2 4.7 88.6 88.2 9.9 11.2 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 17.3 18.6 16.8 5.1 89.3 88.7 9.3 12.6 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 9.1 11.5 14.4 5.2 88.6 87.5 0.7 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 17.2 19.0 15.6 5.4 89.1 88.3 8.9 12.7 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 15.9 17.2 13.3 5.2 87.9 86.6 7.2 12.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 15.7 16.9 15.8 4.4 88.4 87.3 9.8 11.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 5.2 7.8 14.4 5.9 90.9 89.1 -1.6 0.2 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 17.1 19.0 16.7 5.5 89.8 88.7 8.4 12.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 17.1 19.0 15.4 5.8 90.3 88.9 7.9 12.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 17.3 19.3 15.6 5.6 89.6 88.4 8.6 12.7 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 16.6 18.9 14.9 5.7 89.9 88.8 7.2 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 17.1 19.1 14.6 5.3 88.3 88.0 8.4 12.8 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 17.1 20.2 16.7 5.8 91.4 89.8 9.8 12.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 16.7 18.8 15.7 4.9 88.7 87.2 9.6 13.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 17.6 19.6 15.0 5.3 88.2 87.8 8.9 13.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 14.8 16.0 15.5 4.4 87.8 87.1 9.2 10.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 16.7 18.7 14.9 6.1 92.2 90.2 7.9 12.0 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 16.9 17.4 16.6 4.9 89.1 88.9 10.1 11.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 11.8 14.7 12.6 6.2 92.5 91.1 3.5 7.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 17.4 18.6 16.9 5.2 89.0 88.2 8.9 12.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 16.2 17.4 16.1 4.7 87.4 88.3 9.9 11.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 17.2 18.3 17.0 5.3 90.3 89.5 9.9 12.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 17.1 19.0 16.4 5.8 91.6 89.5 9.6 12.5 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 16.6 18.1 15.1 4.7 88.7 87.2 9.3 12.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 16.4 19.6 13.7 5.3 89.7 88.9 7.9 11.8 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 16.7 18.0 15.5 4.5 88.8 87.2 9.6 12.2 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 17.1 19.5 15.2 5.2 88.4 87.2 8.9 14.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 11.5 15.1 14.2 6.4 93.2 91.6 2.9 6.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 16.5 17.2 16.4 4.8 89.0 88.5 9.9 11.5 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------