***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9999.0 0.0 5.3 1.2 73.2 70.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.9 5.4 1.4 76.0 75.0 3.6 4.4 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 7.2 7.4 5.2 1.3 74.0 73.9 6.0 6.6 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 1.3 1.7 2.9 1.4 79.6 74.9 -0.3 0.8 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 3.9 4.1 3.0 1.3 76.2 73.4 2.7 3.3 3.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 3.0 3.4 1.2 1.3 78.1 75.3 2.0 2.2 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 4.9 5.0 5.4 1.4 74.7 74.8 4.2 4.4 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -2.1 -1.7 1.3 1.2 74.9 71.7 -3.8 -3.0 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 4.8 5.0 3.5 1.2 74.2 72.5 3.6 4.2 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 4.7 5.0 2.0 1.2 74.7 71.8 4.0 4.2 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 4.7 4.9 2.5 1.2 76.8 73.2 3.5 4.1 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 3.3 3.7 2.0 1.1 75.0 71.8 2.2 2.7 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 4.2 4.5 1.8 1.2 80.0 74.3 3.0 3.5 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 5.0 5.2 3.6 1.2 73.8 72.4 4.4 4.8 5.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 5.0 5.4 3.7 1.4 83.8 75.4 3.7 4.4 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.6 2.2 1.2 77.4 73.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.0 5.2 5.2 1.3 74.2 73.5 3.7 4.6 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.2 72.2 71.5 1.5 2.1 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 4.9 5.1 5.3 1.4 77.4 75.2 3.6 4.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 0.1 0.3 -0.2 1.3 76.4 73.1 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 4.8 5.1 4.5 1.2 73.1 71.8 3.6 4.2 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 4.2 4.3 5.1 1.3 74.4 73.2 3.2 4.0 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.8 4.9 1.4 79.4 75.5 3.4 3.9 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.6 3.3 1.2 75.2 72.6 3.7 4.1 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 4.9 5.3 3.8 1.2 73.6 72.1 3.6 4.2 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 4.0 4.5 2.0 1.3 80.5 75.7 2.8 3.3 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 5.4 5.6 4.6 1.2 72.7 70.9 4.3 4.6 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 3.3 3.7 3.3 1.4 81.6 75.2 2.2 2.7 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 2.1 2.3 0.8 1.3 75.1 72.7 0.4 1.4 1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 5.2 5.4 5.5 1.4 74.8 74.7 4.2 4.8 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------