***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 -0.4 42.7 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.0 5.5 6.0 -0.2 44.6 46.1 4.9 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.3 7.3 5.8 -0.3 45.4 46.3 6.2 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -0.2 1.6 3.5 -0.2 49.2 46.7 0.3 1.6 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.7 3.5 -0.3 45.7 45.7 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.6 3.6 1.7 -0.1 45.5 47.2 2.8 4.1 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.2 5.7 6.0 -0.3 45.3 46.0 4.9 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -2.9 -2.4 1.8 -0.4 41.2 43.9 -2.7 -1.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.1 4.0 -0.3 45.1 45.3 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.8 2.4 -0.4 42.9 43.8 4.4 5.6 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.0 3.0 -0.3 42.9 45.3 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.6 2.6 -0.3 40.7 44.7 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.4 2.2 -0.2 40.8 45.8 4.0 4.9 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.7 5.5 4.1 -0.4 40.5 45.0 5.1 5.8 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.9 5.6 4.1 -0.1 47.1 48.0 5.1 5.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.5 2.7 -0.2 41.5 45.9 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.6 5.7 5.8 -0.4 45.0 45.5 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.1 1.8 -0.4 40.3 44.0 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.1 5.2 5.9 -0.2 45.2 46.6 4.7 5.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.1 0.8 0.2 -0.3 42.4 45.1 0.0 0.9 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.1 5.0 5.1 -0.3 43.0 45.0 4.3 5.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.2 5.7 -0.3 42.2 45.7 4.3 5.6 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.0 5.1 5.5 -0.2 46.7 47.2 4.0 5.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 4.8 3.8 -0.3 42.3 45.2 4.2 5.6 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.3 5.5 4.4 -0.3 44.6 45.7 4.5 6.1 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.1 2.5 -0.2 41.1 45.6 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.1 5.6 5.3 -0.3 44.2 45.2 4.9 5.7 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.0 3.8 -0.2 46.9 47.0 2.9 4.4 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 1.1 1.7 1.3 -0.3 42.2 45.4 1.1 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.6 5.7 6.1 -0.2 45.2 46.1 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------