***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 5.1 2.1 80.5 73.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 4.8 5.9 5.1 2.2 82.7 75.9 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 7.1 7.8 4.9 2.1 80.8 73.7 5.1 6.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 1.5 2.2 2.6 1.9 78.9 73.7 -1.4 0.4 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 4.8 5.6 2.6 1.9 77.2 72.8 1.2 3.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 3.6 4.4 1.1 2.1 79.9 75.4 0.8 2.3 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.0 6.0 5.2 2.2 84.1 75.9 3.0 4.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 -0.7 0.5 1.3 2.1 81.1 74.0 -4.9 -3.2 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 5.5 6.4 3.2 1.9 76.4 72.0 2.5 4.2 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 5.3 6.2 1.8 2.0 78.4 72.5 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 5.4 6.3 2.3 1.9 80.6 73.4 2.0 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 3.5 4.2 2.0 1.9 80.6 74.1 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 4.8 5.2 1.6 1.9 79.6 75.0 1.4 3.6 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 5.2 6.1 3.3 1.9 75.9 72.3 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 4.8 5.4 3.1 1.9 76.3 73.7 2.7 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 5.8 7.0 2.0 1.9 79.8 74.0 2.9 3.8 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 4.7 5.3 4.9 2.0 80.6 74.4 3.1 3.8 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 2.3 3.2 1.3 2.2 79.0 73.2 0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 4.9 5.8 5.0 2.1 81.9 75.3 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 0.4 1.1 0.0 2.5 83.3 75.8 -2.8 -0.8 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 5.1 5.9 4.2 1.9 76.9 71.6 2.3 3.8 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 4.2 4.8 4.8 1.9 79.9 73.3 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 4.3 5.2 4.6 2.0 80.2 74.5 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 4.4 5.1 3.1 2.0 79.2 72.9 2.3 3.5 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 5.2 6.1 3.4 2.0 78.3 73.3 2.9 3.9 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 4.5 5.3 1.8 1.9 81.7 75.0 1.5 3.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.8 4.4 2.1 78.9 73.7 2.8 4.7 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 3.6 4.4 2.9 1.9 78.2 73.9 1.6 2.4 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 2.4 3.5 0.9 2.3 80.2 74.6 -0.8 1.1 2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.7 6.6 5.2 2.2 83.3 75.6 3.3 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------